Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW21

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A as two of the top four face off..

Inter to put pressure on league leaders Milan

Fiorentina v Inter Milan
Friday, 19:45
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After suffering a Coppa Italia defeat against Juventus during the week, Inter can get back to business in Florence, where a win in the first game of the weekend will take them top. The Viola won their last home game against struggling Crotone but have just two victories from their last seven at Artemio Franchi and haven't beaten Inter in the league since a chaotic 5-4 win at the end of the 2016/17 season. Infogol makes the visitors favourites, though a repeat of the 4-3 in Milan earlier this term might be optimistic.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Atalanta to rebound from Lazio setback

Atalanta v Torino
Saturday, 14:00
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Atalanta's 10-game unbeaten league run was ended by Lazio last week, with Gian Piero Gasperini's men unable to recover from Adam Marušić's third-minute opener, but they still have an impressive home record with an average of 2.08 xGF and 1.02 xGA in Bergamo. This weekend's visitors are Torino, who only managed a draw against nine-man Fiorentina last time out and shipped four to these opponents back in the autumn.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.40

Spezia to stay in peril with third straight league loss

Sassuolo v Spezia
Saturday, 14:00
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Spezia were given a harsh welcome to Serie A in September, shipping four at home to Sassuolo, and Vincenzo Italiano's team have conceded the same number in two of their last three games as they suffered defeats in league and cup. Infogol's model gives the hosts a 60% chance of doing the double over the Aquilotti, though the away side may well be able to find the net after averaging 1.16 xGF on the road so far.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.40

Juve to edge close top-four clash

Juventus v Roma
Saturday, 17:00
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Victory over Inter in the first leg of the cup semi-final was Juve's fourth straight victory in all competitions, and a fifth on the bounce will be enough to take them above Roma and into third. If Andrea Pirlo's team can keep all 11 men on the field, something they failed to do in the last meeting between the sides, they should have enough to turn the 55% chance of victory given to them by Infogol's model into three points.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.80

Napoli to edge past in-form Genoa

Genoa v Napoli
Saturday, 19:45
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Seven points from three games have taken Genoa out of immediate danger, with Davide Ballardini inspiring his charges after returning to the dugout, but the visit of a Napoli side who put six past the Rossoblù in September is a different prospect. The visitors have been solid on the road, allowing just 1.04 xGA per game, and Infogol offers a more-or-less even chance of both goalkeepers conceding.

Back the 0-2 @ 8.40


Benevento to earn first win in a month

Benevento v Sampdoria
Sunday, 11:30
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Benevento delivered a statistical rarity last weekend, failing to record a single shot in their 4-0 defeat at Inter, but manager Pippo Inzaghi will surely demand an instant response from his charges. Opponents Sampdoria have blown hot and cold this season, averaging 1.79 xGA away from home but winning four of their 10 games away from Luigi Ferraris, and Infogol's model suggests this one could easily go either way.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Milan to crush Crotone at home

AC Milan v Crotone
Sunday, 14:00
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Milan returned to form in a big way last weekend, registering 10 shots on target in their 2-1 win away to Bologna, and a home meeting with bottom-of-the-table Crotone is unlikely to cause them too many problems. The league leaders have averaged 2.26 xGF at home, and their visitors have just two points from 10 games on the road, so this ought to be as close to a sure thing as you'll get with Infogol making the hosts 76% favourites.

Back the 3-0 @ 8.60

Udinese to earn first back-to-back wins of 2021

Udinese v Verona
Sunday, 14:00
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Rodrigo De Paul was Udinese's hero last week, scoring a match-winning penalty in La Spezia, and Friulani boss Luca Gotti will hope for another shutout as his team hosts Verona at home. The Gialloblu won 1-0 in the reverse fixture, but an average of 0.91 xGA at home should help Gotti's men earn back-to-back Serie A wins for the first time since they won three in a row in November and December.

Back the 2-0 @ 11.50

Bologna to get the better of struggling Parma

Parma v Bologna
Sunday, 17:00
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A 4-1 home win over Parma in September remains Bologna's biggest win this season, and Siniša Mihajlovič will be optimistic about leading his team to a double over the side currently 19th in Serie A. Roberto D'Aversa is still yet to win since returning to Ennio Tardini, though he did see a late comeback from 2-0 down against the same opponents last season, and Infogol anticipates both teams netting again but the visitors taking the points.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Lazio to go six for six in the league

Lazio v Cagliari
Sunday, 19:45
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Lazio gained instant revenge for their Coppa Italia elimination at the hands of Atalanta, winning 3-1 at Gewiss Stadium last weekend, and Simone Inzaghi's team have an expected goal difference of 4.34 across their last four in Serie A - all wins. Sunday night sees them play host to a Cagliari side which stopped the rot with a draw against Sassuolo, but Infogol doesn't expect anything other than a win for the hosts which would see them complete the double over Eusebio Di Francesco's team.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.20

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