Peru v Colombia: Reasons to back outsiders in third place play-off

Though Colombia have the stronger team, Dan Fitch has found some compelling reasons that suggest Peru are value in the 2021 Copa America third place play-off...

Peru have pedigree in this tournament

Peru go into this third place play-off as the big outsiders, but they have every reason to be optimistic about their chances.

Though they came into this tournament in poor form, with the team currently bottom of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying standings, Peru have enjoyed a resurgence in form, which included a 2-1 win over Colombia in the group stage. There is also the fact that Peru have done very well in the Copa America over recent years. They were runners-up in 2019 and finished third in 2011 and 2015.

After employing a 5-4-1 formation in their 1-0 semi-final defeat by Brazil, it seems likely that Peru will revert to their regular back-four against Colombia. Andre Carrillo was suspended for the semi, having been sent off in the quarter-final against Paraguay and is set to return.

Colombia come good in the knockout stages

Colombia came even closer to reaching the final than Peru and will want to bounce back by living up to their reputation as the favourites to finish third.

After a disappointing group stage in what Colombia only won one game (P4 W1 D1 L2), they have looked solid during the knockout stages. Colombia held Uruguay to a 0-0 draw in the quarter-finals, before winning a penalty shootout. That result sent them through to the semis, where they came back from a goal down to draw 1-1, thanks to an equaliser from Luis Diaz. On this occasion they lost the resulting shootout, with Colombia missing three penalties in a 3-2 defeat.

A lack of goals have really held Colombia back in this tournament. Introducing Miguel Borja to the forward line is an option for Reinaldo Rueda. The injured midfielder Mateus Uribe is the only player unavailable.

Value lies with Peru

It's Colombia that are the favourites to win in 90 minutes at 1.94, with the draw at 3.6 and Peru out at 4.8.

Though Colombia undoubtedly have the extra quality in their squad, their price looks short considering that they have already lost to Peru in this tournament and have been struggling to score goals. The value lies with Peru, who are 3.5 in the Draw No Bet market and 2.04 to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market.

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