Bundesliga Betting: Union can slow down the champs

After making a profit from last weekend's top-two clash between RB Leipzig and Bayern, Kevin Hatchard's back with four more selections from the German top flight.

Bashed-up Bayern won't thrash Union

Bayern Munich v Union Berlin
Saturday 10 April, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

In sci-fi and fantasy movies there is often a point where you think the super-villain or monster has been destroyed, only for it to somehow heal or reform and attack the hero again. Bayern received their hammer blow on Wednesday against PSG in a 3-2 home defeat in the Champions League, but don't be surprised if they close up their wounds like a T1000 and strike back. They have moved out to a hefty 9.6 in the Champions League Winner market, and I think that's worth considering.

Robert Lewandowski, Niklas Süle and Leon Goretzka are all injured, and Serge Gnabry has tested positive for COVID-19 (contrary to some reports, he hasn't contracted the virus twice, the first time earlier this season was seen as a false positive). The strength of Bayern's squad is being tested, which has further deepened the rift between coach Hansi Flick and sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic. Flick reportedly believes that Salihamidzic has made errors in squad-building, while Salihamidzic is allegedly annoyed that Flick hasn't given more game time to some of his acquisitions.

Despite all of these issues on and off the field, Bayern are still seven points clear at the top of the Bundesliga, and they have won their last five top-flight matches. They have won seven of their last eight league matches at the Allianz Arena.

Union Berlin are in the thick of the battle for the top six, but the absence of forwards Taiwo Awoniyi and Sheraldo Becker has placed almost all of the attacking burden on the shoulders of Max Kruse. While Kruse has delivered (he has ten goals and five assists in the league) he needs help, and there was very little attacking thrust in the second half of the Berlin derby on Sunday. That said, Union did hold Bayern to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, and they have only conceded multiple goals in three of their last 15 Bundesliga matches.

I think Bayern will look to conserve energy ahead of their trip to Paris in the Champions League, and they'll find Union tough to break down. I'll go for Bayern to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 2.34 on the Sportsbook's Same Game Multi.

Overachievers can cancel each other out

Eintracht Frankfurt v Wolfsburg
Saturday 10 April, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

It has been a remarkable season for both Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg, and both are on track to qualify for the Champions League. While clubs like Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Mönchengladbach have repeatedly stumbled, the Eagles and the Wolves have shown admirable consistency, losing just three games apiece.

There are intriguing similarities. Both clubs have excellent coaches who are from the Red Bull school influenced by Ralf Rangnick. Frankfurt boss Adi Hütter won a league and cup double with Salzburg, while Wolfsburg's Oliver Glasner was part of the admin department at the same club (he had retired as a player after a brain haemorrhage) when Rangnick persuaded him to join the coaching staff.

Both have outstanding centre-forwards. Andre Silva has rattled in 22 league goals for Eintracht, including the winner in last weekend's vital 2-1 win at Borussia Dortmund, a result that put Frankfurt seven points clear of BVB in the race for fourth. Wolfsburg have dependable Dutchman Wout Weghorst, who has whacked in 17 goals in the league, and has racked up 50 strikes in the German top flight in just under three seasons. Both men felt they had points to prove - Silva had endured ultimately disappointing spells in Milan and Seville, while Weghorst has been consistently overlooked at international level by the Netherlands.

It was a late Weghorst winner that eventually separated these teams when Wolfsburg won back in December, and I expect another tight tussle. A draw wouldn't do either team much harm, and both sides have racked up a fair few stalemates this term, with Wolfsburg drawing nine times, and Frankfurt playing out 11.

I think backing the draw here is certainly worth considering at 3.6, and I'll also back Frankfurt's Filip Kostic to score at 4.2. A feature of Wolfsburg's 1-0 win over Köln last weekend was their inability to deal with Köln left winger Ismail Jakobs in the first half, and the turbo-charged Kostic has scored in Frankfurt's last two home matches.

Leipzig to stay in the hunt

Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig
Saturday 10 April, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

After watching his side blow their showdown with Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig boss Julian Nagelsmann used a Pep Guardiola-inspired phrase: "I can get you to the final third, and then you decide the game." Dani Olmo and Christopher Nkunku missed huge opportunities in the early part of the second half, as Leipzig lost 1-0 and fell seven points behind the leaders.

While Die Roten Bullen tend to fall short against elite opposition, they are very good at smashing up the lesser lights, and Saturday's opponents Werder Bremen are in that category.

Florian Kohfeldt's men have made it through to the semi-finals of the DFB Cup (they will face RB Leipzig in the final four) but they have lost their last three league games, and aren't yet safe from the drop.

Goalscoring has been a massive problem for Werder, and they have only scored multiple goals in six of their 27 league matches this season. Leipzig have won their last four away games without conceding a goal, and they can win this with room to spare. Leipzig have won their last three BL meetings with Werder by at least two goals, so I'll back them -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.34.

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