Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW27
Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the top two face off...
Hoffenheim to all but clinch safety
Augsburg v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim's 1.65 xGF average per game is the best in the bottom half of the Bundesliga, and Sebastian Hoeneß's men can put this firepower to use at WWK Arena. Opponents Augsburg are just one point below them, but a dismal home return of 0.95 xGF (and 1.9 xGA) per game tips this in the visitors' favour according to Infogol's model.
Wolf to win first game in Bayer dugout
Bayer Leverkusen v Schalke
Saturday, 14:30
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Hannes Wolf is in temporary charge of Bayer Leverkusen following the departure of Peter Bosz, and the interim head coach has the ideal game to get his tenure off to a winning start. Schalke are averaging just 0.8 xGF per game on the road, where they are still yet to win, and the hosts can keep alive their slim top-four hopes with a comfortable victory at BayArena.
Dortmund to squeak a win in top-four battle
Borussia Dortmund v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
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Anything less than a win on Saturday and Dortmund's top four hopes will be left hanging by a thread, but three points will bring them within just one of a Frankfurt side with whom they shared the points at Deutsche Bank Park in December. Infogol backs the hosts to claim victory, but it would be a surprise if this ends up as a low-scoring game.
Mainz to prevail in relegation six-pointer
Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Having looked dead and buried not long ago, Mainz can move five points clear of the automatic relegation spots with a win on Saturday afternoon. Opponents Arminia won the reverse fixture, but an away average of 1.83 xGA could be their undoing against opponents with just one defeat - and an average of 1.66 xGF - across their last six at home and away.
Wolfsburg to keep Köln in deep trouble
Wolfsburg v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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With the teams either side of them facing off in Mainz, this weekend could allow Köln to make big strides. The problem for them is the fixture list throwing up a trip to Volkswagen Arena, where their opponents are unbeaten all season with the best home goals conceded record in the entire league. Infogol anticipates a home win, and another home clean sheet - an eighth of the season - would not come as a huge surprise.
Leipzig to breathe new life into title race
RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 17:30
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RB Leipzig have the chance to close the gap at the top to a single point with victory over Bayern Munich on Saturday, and the sizeable gap to those below them means Julian Nagelsmann's side ought to be able to really go for it. The hosts are one of just two sides averaging less than 1 xGA per game at home, and a solid attacking return at Red Bull Arena is enough for Infogol to make them narrow favourites against the champions, who will be missing the injured Robert Lewandowski.
Gladbach to return to top half by leapfrogging Freiburg
Borussia Mönchengladbach v Freiburg
Saturday, 19:30
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After stopping the rot with a win at Schalke last weekend, Gladbach find themselves within sight of the top half as they welcome a Freiburg side just on point ahead of them in the table. These two sides shared four goals in the reverse fixture, and another close-run game could be in the works, but Infogol anticipates home advantage benefitting Marco Rose's men.
Stuttgart to cling onto top half berth
Stuttgart v Werder Bremen
Sunday, 14:30
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Back-to-back defeats have seen Werder lose ground on the top half, and a trip to Stuttgart is expected to compound that if Infogol's model is proven right at Mercedes-Benz Arena. Much will depend on how the hosts cope without Silas Wamangituka, their match-winner in the reverse fixture, who has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Pellegrino Matarazzo's side still have a slight upper hand, though, even if a close encounter is likely.
Union to clinch derby victory
Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin
Sunday, 17:00
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Hertha are still not out of the woods, despite winning their last two at the Olympiastadion, and neighbours Union would surely love to send their rivals into the relegation spots. Urs Fischer's side suffered from an early Robert Andrich red card in the reverse fixture, but home advantage - they have the second-best home xGA record in the league - is expected to be enough for Fischer's men toe exact some revenge.
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