France v Germany: Les Bleus a value bet to triumph in high-scoring thriller

France v Germany: Les Bleus a value bet to triumph in high-scoring thriller

France were pre-tournament favourites and are a good bet to make a winning start on Tuesday night, writes James Eastham...

France underrated

Are the chances of France and Germany winning this game really as close to 50-50 as the market suggests?

With just over 24 hours to go until kick-off hosts Germany are 2.88 while France are only a touch shorter at 2.7.

Yet the closeness of those prices makes a mockery of France's status as 6.0 joint tournament favourites and barely reflects the difference in calibre between these two sides.

While Joachim Low's Germany squad is not without quality, the current incarnation lacks the outright star appeal of some vintages and there are legitimate concerns over the individual and collective standard of their defence.

Meanwhile, France enter Euro 2020 with a starting line-up to envy and manager Didier Deschamps ought to have a full squad to pick from.

France's new formation

For their two pre-tournament friendlies Deschamps introduced a new 4-1-2-1-2 formation and it bore fruit anew as les Bleus brushed aside Wales and then Bulgaria in 3-0 wins.

The system is designed to get the best out of attacking trident Antoine Griezmann, the recalled Karim Benzema and Kylian Mbappe and the evidence from those friendlies is that Deschamps has picked the right shape for his side.

The presence of the trio up front against a Germany line-up lacking top-class defensive performers (other than the recalled Mats Hummels) makes the case for supporting France compelling.

Backing les Bleus at 2.7 is a good option but those large odds also throw up the option of considering other markets.

Backing France in the Draw No Bet market is available at 1.8. With this selection, you'll make a profit if France win, and have the safety net of getting your stakes back if the game ends all-square.

High goals a strong selection

Looking at the other markets available on the game, 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at 1.8 and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.2 will both understandably attract plenty of interest.

As alluded to above, France's attack is rightly considered one of the tournament's strongest, and Germany's potentially unreliable defence might well play into France's hands.

Germany have conceded in 10 of their last 12 games and in 17 of 25 games since the last World Cup. In eight of those 25 matches Germany have conceded two or more goals.

Expect goals at both ends

At the other end, however, Germany have enough firepower to threaten France's back four.

Germany have scored in 22 of 25 internationals since the last World Cup, averaging 2.36 goals a game across those fixtures.

Given Germany's attacking and defensive stats, it's little surprise so many of Germany's games have been high-scoring: 16 of those 25 matches have had Over 2.5 Goals, with 11 having Over 3.5 Goals.

Since their World Cup victory in 2018 15 of France's 28 fixtures have featured Over 2.5 Goals, with seven having Over 3.5 Goals.

Looking at those stats for both sides over the past three years the price of 2.16 on Over 2.5 Goals is worth considering. At 1.8, 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market will also attract attention.