Colombia v Ecuador: Revenge for Los Cafeteros in entertaining match

Colombia v Ecuador: Revenge for Los Cafeteros in entertaining match

Dan Fitch thinks that Colombia will avenge a recent loss against Ecuador, in what seems likely to be a game laden with goals on Monday morning...

Colombia come into tournament having found form

Colombia should be enjoying home advantage at this tournament, but anti-government protests have seen the Copa America move to Brazil.

The fourth favourites to win the competition at 13.0, it's not been ideal preparation. They do at least come into the tournament off the back of a couple of good results in World Cup qualifying last week, winning 3-0 away in Peru and then fighting back to draw 2-2 at home to Argentina.

Yet overall, Colombia's qualification campaign has been erratic (P6 W2 D2 L2), with the standout result being a 6-1 defeat away at Ecuador, their opening opponents at the Copa America. Selection wise, the major controversy has been the omission of James Rodriguez, with the Colombian head coach Reinaldo Rueda claiming that the playmaker wasn't fit enough, which was at odds with the opinion of Everton's coaching staff.

Ecuador face struggle to make knockout stages

Ecuador are the one of the underdogs at this Copa America, rated as the seventh favourites to win the competition at 40.0.

They are a hard team to access. Though they have picked up notable victories in World Cup qualifying, beating Uruguay 4-2 and Colombia 6-1, both came at home, where they have the advantage of playing at high altitude.

Perhaps then it's better to look at their away form. Ecuador have beaten Bolivia 3-2 in qualifying, but when they went up against top opposition such as Argentina and Brazil, they lost without scoring. In their most recent outing they lost 2-1 at home to Peru and they will hope that the potential return of Enner Valencia will improve their fortunes, with the former West Ham striker needing just one more goal to become Ecuador's all-time record scorer.

Revenge for Colombia and goals will flow

Colombia are the 2.00 favourites to win their opening match in Group B, with the draw at 3.3 and Ecuador out at 4.8.

It might seems a little strange that Colombia are favourites against a side that thrashed them as recently as November, but that match should be treated as an anomaly. Colombia should have the quality to win this one and their odds represent good value.

With Ecuador having scored six against them last time out, we might at least expect them to get on the scoresheet. Both teams to score looks big at 2.02, with Colombia having conceded in four of their last five games.

Each of Colombia's last six matches have seen at least three goals scored, so over 2.5 goals is another bet that is generously priced at 2.32. If you combine a Colombia win with a high-scoring game, you can get some attractive odds. A Colombia victory and over 2.5 goals is 3.4, while a Colombia win and both teams to score is 4.5.