French Open Day Three Women's Tips: Schmiedlova with edge over Mladenovic

First round action at the French Open continues on Tuesday, with the final 20 women's singles matches taking place. Returning to look at day three is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

Osaka withdrawal the biggest news on Monday

Arguably the biggest news yesterday wasn't on court, it was off court, with Naomi Osaka withdrawing from the tournament after beating Patricia Maria Tig in her opening round. This gives Ana Bogdan a bye into round three and has had some influence on the outright market with Osaka's implied tournament win percentage needing to be redistributed among the other contenders.

After her opening round victory over Kaja Juvan, defending champion and tournament favourite Iga Swiatek has shortened to 3.1, while Aryna Sabalenka 6.2 and Ash Barty 7.2 are the other two players in single-digit market pricing at the time of writing.

Schmiedlova with a better clay record than Mladenovic

Moving on to today's matches, the theme of not being able to find much value in round one in this year's women's tournament continues, although there is one spot which I like enough to put forward for a recommendation.

This is Anna Schmiedlova at 1.70 for her match against home player Kristina Mladenovic, with the Slovakian, Schmiedlova, having much more of a competent clay record over the last year or two. She has qualified to be here, including an excellent win over top seed in qualifying Vera Zvonareva, and also has had some decent clay wins of late as well, including over Venus Williams, Kateryna Kozlova and Alison Van Uytvanck.

Since Mladenovic made the quarter-final of the Rome Premier in 2019, she has been pretty uninspiring on clay and her two-year surface numbers aren't great at all (combined service/return points won below 94%). Also, I have a perception that she is a better player in quicker conditions, which she is unlikely to find here with round one's service points won numbers being pretty closely aligned to previous Roland Garros events, with the exception of last year which was played at a different stage of the season.

Gauff and Krejcikova looking short-priced

A few favourites look pretty short-priced but are still likely to get the job done. These include Cori Gauff at 1.14 against Aleksandra Krunic, who is a very capable clay-courter at her best and won three matches in qualifying to get to this stage. Also, in the all-Czech clash, I wouldn't be shocked if Barbora Krejcikova found the big-serving Krystina Pliskova a little tougher than the market expects at 1.14.

Jabeur could be value even as favourite

The more illustrious Pliskova sister, Karolina, is another player who looks a bit short-priced for her match against Donna Vekic based on numbers, but that's probably due to Vekic not having played for almost four months - in normal circumstances on clay, the 1.23 would look a bit out of line.

In other matches, there are several pretty competitive-looking clashes which catch the eye. Ons Jabeur has really improved and could even be a touch of value at 1.55 against Yulia Putintseva, while the market is finding it difficult to split Anastasija Sevastova and Jennifer Brady. Brady is certainly the better hard courter, but Sevastova has more clay experience so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

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