ATP Cincinnati Day Five Tips: Big names are heavy favourites with market accurate

We have third round ATP action at the Cincinnati Masters today with 16 players fighting to make it through to the quarter-finals tomorrow. Dan Weston discusses the day ahead...

Big names progress to round three

Action in Cincinnati begins at 1600 UK time on Thursday with most big names - including the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev - in action after making it through round two yesterday. However, we did lose Andy Murray who failed to overcome Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets - he was a big pre-match underdog so it wasn't a huge surprise.

That trio - Medvedev, Tsitsipas and Zverev - are the three heavy pre-match favourites today against Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Sonego and Guido Pella, respectively, and all of them are priced between the 1.10 and 1.20 mark to make tomorrow's quarters.

The market looks pretty accurate with their pricing, and there's not much to disagree with there.

Isner's consistent serve should be too much for Paire

A theme of correct pricing applies throughout today's card - there's not much in the way of pre-match value at all, with the market looking like they've got everything right today. There's not even much value in the side markets, with John Isner versus Benoit Paire being a match featuring rather different dynamics - Isner's big serve versus Paire's inconsistency.

In fact, the Frenchman's serve numbers are very poor since the tour resumed - holding just shy of 70% of service games - and this could be a real issue against a big-server such as Isner who should be able to hold consistently. The upshot of that is that my model suggests there's less than a 25% chance of a first set tiebreak in the match, which is possibly less than many people would anticipate.

Berrettini versus Auger-Aliassime looks like the match of the day

This is a similar chance of a first-set tiebreak as the Sonego versus Tsitsipas clash, and also Matteo Berrettini versus Felix Auger-Aliassime meeting which looks like one of the matches of the day. Berrettini is the 1.62 favourite for the clash which looks a bit short, but still bigger than the 1.35 starting price for their previous meeting at Wimbledon around six weeks ago.

That day, Berrettini progressed in four sets, but I am anticipating a tight, serve-orientated match, with few break point chances. My model has both players likely to hold just shy of 90% of the time.

Ruud slight favourite for return-orientated clash with Schwartzman

In other matches, Andrey Rublev is a solid favourite at 1.40 over Gael Monfils, while Hurbert Hurkacz is 1.91 versus Pablo Carreno-Busta. Hurkacz, who got the better of Andy Murray yesterday, looks justified as a slight favourite for the match given that it's likely to be played on a fairly quick conditions.

Finally, Casper Ruud is a marginal favourite at a similar 1.84 for his clash with Diego Schwartzman, in what looks like the most return-orientated match on the schedule today. I make the match pretty much even money, so Ruud does look a little short, but not hugely so.

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