Australian Open Women's Final Tips: Collins facing tough job to break Barty's serve

The women's final at the Australian Open takes place on Saturday, and with home favourite Ash Barty short-priced to lift the trophy, Dan Weston looks at whether there can be a shock...

Barty showing incredible dominance on serve

Ash Barty continued her steamrollering of the Australian Open field to reach Saturday's women's final, and I thought it would be interesting, and useful, to begin this preview with some stats which Barty has accumulated in the six matches in Melbourne which she has played this year.

In total, the world number one has played 12 sets, winning them all, and is 72-21 in games played, winning 77% of all games played. Barty has also won in excess of 60% of points in the matches she's featured in - a truly incredible figure - and her main success has been on serve, holding serve over 85% of the time.

Collins unable to come close to Barty's numbers

As good as opponent Danielle Collins has been in the tournament so far, the American cannot compete with these numbers from Barty in the tournament so far. Simply based on numbers for this tournament this year, it's evident that Barty should be a strong market favourite to be celebrating with the Australian Open trophy on Saturday, and she is, priced at 1.24.

If we look at year long hard court data as well, Barty again has a big edge - at least on serve. The Australian has won 7% more service points than Collins in this sample, with broadly similar return data.

Again, we see the extent of the strength which Barty possesses on serve, making it very difficult for opposition players to put any consistent pressure on her serve throughout matches.

Barty needs to have an off-day for a shock

Even though Collins won their last meeting - on hard court in Adelaide around a year ago - Collins also has issues pressurising the Barty serve in their four previous meetings. Barty has held almost 80% of the time against Collins in those clashes, and for there to be any chance of a shock on Saturday, it's pretty evident that Barty will need to have an off-day on serve and Collins will probably have to play at her best.

Of course, that's possible, but that's why there are no certainties in sport. However, the market prices accurately establish that as well, implying around an 80% chance of a Barty victory tomorrow, and that looks about right to me.


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