Australian Open Women's Quarter-Final Tips: Collins and Swiatek to march on

Dan Weston's previews both of Wednesday's women's singles quarter-finals and discusses the betting on Danielle Collins v Alize Cornet and Iga Swiatek v Kaia Kanepi...

Madison Keys became the first player to make the semi-finals in the women's singles on Tuesday morning, getting the better of Barbora Krejcikova in straight sets to continue her impressive start to 2022.

Ashleigh Barty joined her in progressing, with the tournament favourite easily disposing of Jessica Pegula for the loss of two games.

Barty has dropped just 17 games across 10 wins and has been dominant so far in the tournament - no surprise that she has shortened in the outright market to 1.71.

The remaining quarter-final matches on Wednesday are ones for the night owls, scheduled at midnight and 2am UK time, and they are intriguing matches for various reasons.

Collins to send Cornet crashing out

In the first match, Danielle Collins is a strong 1.41 favourite over Alize Cornet 3.4, who has reached the quarter-final in a Grand Slam for the first time at the age of 32. Unfortunately for Cornet, the market looks accurate here with Collins having a big edge on hard court service points won percentage over the last year.

Yes, Cornet has better return numbers to a lesser degree and has shocked Simona Halep and Garbine Muguruza en route to this stage. But Collins is a deserved favourite here.

Her wins over Elise Mertens and Clara Tauson looked close based on the scorecard but actually featured Collins taking a low percentage of break point chances on return, so could have conceivably have been wrapped up earlier if she had been more clinical. The market looks about right to me.

Swiatek to end Kanepi's adventure

In the remaining quarter-final, our outright pick Iga Swiatek is an even shorter favourite at [1.26 ] for her clash with Kaia Kanepi, who has lost her last six Grand Slam quarter-finals, taking just one set across those six matches.

Kanepi was a big-priced underdog for most of those matches, so her record isn't completely extreme, but picked up a nice win for us against Aryna Sabalenka on Monday, backing up another underdog win over Angelique Kerber for the Estonian in round one. However, it seems likely that her journey will end against Swiatek tomorrow.

Swiatek is the better player on the hard surface, with a big edge on service points won percentages and also on return too over the last year. The Pole has also impressed this season from a data perspective, running at 111% combined in 2022 - remember, anything over 110% is elite level on both tours.

I can't dispute that either Swiatek or Collins are deserving of their status as strong favourites so my thoughts are in line with the market in general.


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