Bundesliga xG Tips

Bundesliga xG Tips: Freiburg and Leverkusen to prolong European battle in Gameweek 27

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as the Champions League chase tightens up...

Gladbach to leapfrog Bochum

Bochum v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Friday, 19:30
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Borussia Mönchengladbach eased their relegation worries last weekend with a comfortable victory over Hertha Berlin, and three points at Vonovia Ruhrstadion on Friday could lift Adi Hütter's team as high as 11th. Hosts Bochum remain relatively impressive at home, with a 1.28 xGA average in their first season since promotion, but Infogol expects their recent underwhelming form to continue.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.50

Fürth to fall flat against flying Freiburg

Greuther Fürth v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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An average of 0.61 xGF from their last four games would worry Greuther Fürth even if they hadn't shipped 13 in those fixtures, and Stefan Leitl's team still need three more points to pass the 16 accrued by last season's basement club Schalke. They're unlikely to get that against a Freiburg side unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga games, and Infogol anticipates an away victory.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Hoffenheim to deny returning Magath

Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Another defeat last time out was Tayfun Korkut's last as Hertha manager, with Felix Magath taking over after five years out of management, and the 68-year-old's first task will be a tough one against a Hoffenheim side unbeaten in five. The visitors are averaging 1.79 xGF per game on the road, and are expected to pick up the three points they need to keep their hopes of Champions League qualification alive.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.80

Mainz to keep Arminia in trouble

Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Arminia's 12 road points this season come despite - not because of - a 0.90 xGF average which is the second-lowest in the entire league. Their last three home and away fixtures have seen them average just 0.37 xGF, and this is unlikely to be enough against a Mainz side who have been very solid this season at Mewa Arena.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.40

Stuttgart to triumph in huge six-pointer

Stuttgart v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Three points for Stuttgart on Saturday could blow the relegation battle wide open, bringing Pellegrino Matarazzo's side level with their weekend opponents and potentially lifting them to 14th after being in the bottom three since mid-January. The reverse fixture went the way of Markus Weinzierl's men back in October, but all signs point to the hosts closing in on where the numbers say they should be.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.60

Bayern to all but end Union's European hopes

Bayern Munich v Union Berlin
Saturday, 17:30
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Defeat for Union at the Allianz Arena could leave them as many as nine points adrift of a European spot, leaving the DFB-Pokal as by far their best shot at continental football next season. Urs Fischer's visitors earned a point from the corresponding fixture last season, but shipped five to the champions-elect in this season's home meeting and look unlikely to pull off a shock in Bavaria.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 11.00

Leipzig's top-four push to remain on track

RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday, 14:30
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RB Leipzig's away form is finally starting to catch up with their home displays, and a Champions League spot is theirs for the taking as long as they can keep up the latter. A 2.18 xGF average at Red Bull Arena should mean they have too much for Frankfurt on Sunday, and should go some way to making up for the reverse fixture when their 4.01 single-game xGF didn't bring them three points.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 12.00

Leverkusen to cling on to third spot

Wolfsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 16:30
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Last week's loss at home to Köln means Leverkusen's grip on a top-four finish is loosening, but Infogol still backs them to get back on track at Volkswagen Arena after that setback. The reverse fixture went the way of Florian Kohfeldt's side, with the manager claiming victory in his first game in charge, but Bayer have a narrow edge in this one as they return from European action.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.40

Dortmund to end Köln's slim top-six hopes

Köln v Borussia Dortmund
Sunday, 18:30
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Despite picking up an important win in Leverkusen last time out, things aren't getting much easier for Köln. The high-flyers have already passed their points total from last season, but Infogol's model doesn't back them to do a great deal against a Dortmund side averaging just 0.75 xGA across their last three league games and with Erling Haaland available once more after injury.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.00