Indian Wells Men's Day 7 Tips: Back Sinner to Nick the win against Krygios
The Indian Wells Masters moves to the fourth round stage today, and with all eight matches on today's schedule, Dan Weston previews the day ahead...
There's a bumper schedule today with the tournament really starting to take shape - after today there will be just eight players left in the event. It should be quite the day for the neutral as well, with only Rafa Nadal (against Reilly Opelka) a short-priced favourite.
With most of the other matches looking very competitive, finding false favourites/underdogs is the order for the day, and there's several options.
Slight underdog Grigor maringally preferrred
First up, John Isner against Grigor Dimitrov, with Isner getting past Diego Schwartzman yesterday and Dimitrov progressing at the expense of Alexander Bublik in round three.
Isner's serve worked pretty well yesterday, hitting 72% of first serves and not facing a break point, which was a little surprising in these slower conditions.
Schwartzman was disappointing, winning just four points in the entire match on Isner's first serve. It is hoped that Dimitrov can make more of an impact, and longer-term hard court numbers suggest that he should be favourite here.
Despite this, the market is finding it tricky to split the duo. Dimitrov had a very poor record at this event until last year, when he reached the semi-finals, while Isner, despite his big-serving style, has been able to have a greater impact.
If forced, I'd lean towards Dimitrov at 2.02, but there's enough considerations to make me reassess my first thought on the match, which was that Dimitrov looked like the value pick.
Sinner the bet to beat Krygios
This leaves me with Jannik Sinner, who is a marginal 1.92 favourite against Nick Kyrgios.
In addition, I'd rather side with Sinner, a player playing week in, week out and showing huge career progression than Kyrgios, who has basically been a part-timer over the last year or two, so the Italian is our pick for Wednesday.
Norrie involved in match of the day
Moving on to other matches, Taylor Fritz is a slight favourite over Alex De Minaur, which looks justified - he has a good venue record including reaching the semi-final last year and beating Berrettini, Sinner and Zverev on the way - while there's a fascinating clash in prospect between the Brit, Cameron Norrie, who won here with a shock triumph last season and the hugely talented Jenson Brooksby.
Having already picked up two underdog victories in the tournament so far against Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas, Brooksby will be in confident mood as he aims to pick up a third in a row.
Stats-wise over the last 12 months, there's not much between them on hard court, and both have impressed so far this season.
With Norrie the 1.92 marginal favourite, this looks like one of the matches of the day to me and I'm looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
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