Arsenal v Everton

Arsenal v Everton: Gunners can outscore Toffees

Arsenal still have a chance to snatch fourth place and they can see off an Everton side which has just secured survival, says Dave Tindall...

Arsenal must win and hope

Victory over Spurs in the North London derby two games ago would have secured Arsenal's place in the Champions League for next season.

But a 3-0 loss in that one followed by a limp 2-0 defeat at Newcastle on Monday has left them clutching at straws.

To make the top four now, they have to win here and hope Spurs drop points at basement boys Norwich. With food poisoning rumours being denied, that looks highly unlikely.

And yet, nothing is ever certain in the world of Spurs or Arsenal and it's why neither has been able to take a firm grip on fourth spot even though they've made a better fist of it than a woeful Manchester United.

So while there's hope, Arsenal have to give everything and it surely helps their cause that Everton go into the match having just ensured Premier League survival.

With Spurs two points in front, only a win for Arsenal will do. They have 12 of those at home this season, the fourth best tally in the top flight.

Toffees can finally breathe

It was starting to look pretty desperate for Everton at one point but they deserve credit for finding a late spark.

And while they were the subject of ridicule for the wild celebrations that followed beating the drop after spending an awful lot of money, those at Everton won't care a jot. The mission has been accomplished.

A run of 10 points from the last 15 available is more than Arsenal have managed over the same period and achieving safety by coming from 2-0 down to beat Crystal Palace on Thursday night was a tremendously gutsy effort.

That gave Frank Lampard's side a ninth home Premier League win of the campaign - more than third-placed Chelsea have managed at Stamford Bridge.

That includes a 2-1 victory over the Gunners earlier in the campaign when two goals in the last 10 minutes settled the game.

But away from home Everton have been woeful and their tally of eight points is the joint-worst in the Premier League alongside relegated Norwich.

Gunners to get it done but Everton can make a mark

Motivation can often bend a market too much and perhaps that's the case here.

Arsenal, who have to win, are just 1.38 while Everton, who don't, are as big as 9.8. The Draw is 5.6.

Perhaps on basic home v away form that's not too far off the mark although one of Everton's paltry tally of two away wins did come earlier this month when they scored a 2-1 triumph at Leicester.

The counter-argument here is that Everton will play with extra freedom given that they've achieved survival. Rather than being on the beach, they'll play fast and loose and have some swagger.

I think there may be a touch of that and it may be apparent for spells in the match. In which case I fancy them to score a goal.

But over the course of 90 minutes I prefer the Gunners. Arsenal will want to end their final home match of the season on a positive note, even if there is news from Carrow Road that Spurs are winning comfortably.

So pulling that together, the market to play is Arsenal to win and Both teams to Score at 3.0. That's quite a jump from the basic home win price of 1.38.

Market expects goals

Given the recommended bet I'm clearly on the side of Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS.

The market shows Over 2.5 Goals as a clear favourite at 1.61. Unders is 2.58.

As for Both teams to Score, it's closer but Yes is favoured at 1.92 while No is 2.04.

Saka and Richarlison worth a look

Bukayo Saka has played in every Premier League game for Arsenal this season, a real tribute to the youngster's durability.

He's also their top scorer with 11 goals.

For Everton, Richarlison has been a key man in their relegation fight, his strike against Palace making it six goals in the last nine games.

Feeding that into the Bet Builder, Saka to score, Richarlison to score and Arsenal to win pays just over 14.0.

Opta stat

Arsenal are unbeaten in their final league game in each of the last 16 seasons (W14 D2), winning the last 10 in a row. When finishing a league season at home, the Gunners have won each of their last 12 games since a 3-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in 1992-93.