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ATP Australian Open Post-Draw: Rublev capable of getting through Quarter Two

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<span style="background-color: white;">ATP Australian Open Post-Draw: Rublev capable of getting through Quarter Two</span></h1>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: 700;">Following Thursday's draw, our tennis columnist Dan Weston returns to give his thoughts on the men's singles outright market...</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Little has changed at top of market post-draw</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Prior to the draw being made, we had a thorough discussion on Wednesday regarding the men's singles at the Australian Open - including player statistics - and to my mind, <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">not a great deal has changed</strong>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Thursday's draw saw Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer being drawn together in the bottom half of the draw while Rafa Nadal has Daniil Medvedev as company as a fellow top four seed. Generally speaking, the <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">outright market</strong> has seen little to disagree with my assertion above that not much has changed, with Djokovic's price <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>virtually unaltered at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="5/4">2.24</span>, while Nadal has drifted a touch <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>to [7.2]</b></span></span>. Medvedev has very slightly shortened <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>to</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="8/1">8.80</span> with Federer - who has deigned not to play a warm-up match this season - <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>at [13.0]</b></span></span>.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional elite three still the ones to beat</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">This leaves the implied percentage chance of a traditional elite three winner at around the 66% mark, with the implied likelihood of one of the top four seeds lifting the trophy just shy of 78%, and that should be an <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">accurate illustration</strong> of where we are at with this men's singles tournament - while the elite three should - sooner or later - fall of their perch, it hasn't happened yet. If we look at the all-surface ATP Tour combined service/return points won data for the last six months, the top three are - yes you've guessed it, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">So, it is pretty straightforward to see that any other player winning this title would be a <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">pretty big shock</strong>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">History suggests that men's singles players breaking opponents less than 20% of the time on the relevant surface have a very poor chance of winning Grand Slams, which is utterly logical because they tend to play tighter sets, and more of them because they are relying on winning key points and tiebreaks - leading to more accumulated fatigue, which is crucial to avoid in the arduous best of five set format. This issue does, however, make backing the likes of Stefanos Tsitispas, <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="18/1">19.00</span> and Nick Kyrgios <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>at [44.0]</b></span></span> an <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">extremely questionable proposition</strong>.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Tricky to find a player to take on the elite</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">This leads me on nicely to the main issue at play here. While it's viable to think about taking on a couple of the top four in the market - Nadal, who tends to struggle more in quicker conditions, and Federer, who comes into the event <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">potentially rusty</strong>, in particular - it's so difficult to find a player who you have a reasonable degree of confidence in getting to the latter stages at a value price.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Statistically, Denis Shapovalov, <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Andrey Rublev</strong> and Roberto Bautista-Agut look to have as good a shot as any at taking on the top four, but it's far from a straightforward proposition. I also highlighted Alex De Minaur as a potential threat on Wednesday but the Australian has pulled out in advance with an abdominal injury.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="315" data-original-width="560" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG7TH-vMPNmppsv1SS_2LeJB8U1oL7wyOjOw7HhJaybkS5W-O0R4xEsiBIFSc-oIaZ5C483GlfN-z_78AUHqC8jaunW4UlA1RcJ2J53Iz30ELBeTKvJK4lTqfkEF4yrZu4H3sl1bIiUho/s640/rublev_jnud.jpg" width="640" /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Shapovalov is in Federer's third quarter, but he faces a <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">potentially tricky route</strong> to the fourth round with a likely schedule of Fucsovics/Sinner/Dimitrov. Those who are keen on the Canadian may wish to avail themselves of the <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>6/1 about him to win Quarter Three</b></span></span> at the Sportsbook.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">My concern surrounding Bautista-Agut is twofold. Firstly, he is the type of player who tends to beat those worse, but struggles against those better than him. This makes him a <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">really reliable type</strong> in 250 level events, for example, but in higher profile tournaments, it's more of an issue. In addition, he has been drawn in Quarter Four alongside the tournament favourite, Djokovic.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Rapidly improving Rublev the best option to take on Medvedev</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Finally, Rublev. The Russian youngster has shown a superb level so far in 2020, going eight from eight and winning in both Doha and Adelaide, accumulating an extremely strong combined service/return points won percentage of almost 113%. At 22 years of age, it is evident that he's on an <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">upward ability curve</strong> but my main concern surrounding him would be potentially overplaying in these warm-up events. However, he got a first round bye in both tournaments and therefore needed to win just four matches in each to lift the trophy, and he only dropped two sets in these eight matches - so got the job done quickly, for the most part.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>The Sportsbook are going 9/1</b></span></span> on Rublev to win Quarter Two - Medvedev's quarter - with Alexander Zverev shorter and Stan Wawrinka at the same price. Stats would suggest Rublev has a better chance than this duo, who aren't currently showing a level close to their best, and Rublev to win Quarter Two looks the <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">best of a bad bunch</strong> from a pre-tournament outright perspective.</span></div>
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ATP Australian Open Post-Draw: Rublev capable of getting through Quarter Two

ATP Australian Open Post-Draw: Rublev capable of getting through Quarter Two Following Thursday's draw, our tennis columnist Dan West...

03:16

WTA Australian Open Post-Draw: Serena value at the top of the market

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<span style="background-color: white;">WTA Australian Open Post-Draw: Serena value at the top of the market</span></h1>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: 700;">With the Australian Open starting overnight on Monday, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to finalise his post-draw outright positions for the women's singles tournament...</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div>
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<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; color: #161616; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Williams the current standout player on the WTA Tour</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">While it is extremely difficult to see past the top of the market in the men's singles event, there is considerably more scope to look at <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">longer odds opportunities</strong> in the women's tournament, with there being little to split around 20 players from a statistical standpoint.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">There is one exception to this point of view though - <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Serena Williams</strong>. After winning in Auckland last week, the veteran is running at over 114% combined service/return points won in the last six months. With Bianca Andreescu injured, Williams is the standout player on tour by some distance, both when looking at this metric, and also 12 month hard court data.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; color: #161616; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Question marks around a lot of quarter two rivals</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Certainly, my stats suggest there is a <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">markedly bigger ability gap</strong> between Williams and second favourite Naomi Osaka than there is between Novak Djokovic and Rafa Nadal in the men's, yet Djokovic is priced at <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="5/4">2.24</span> currently, and Williams can be backed <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/1">5.20</span>.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Williams has been drawn in Quarter Two and it's interesting to note that the two tournament favourites both come from this bracket, with Osaka her main threat. In truth, I'd be <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">hugely shocked</strong> if one of these two failed to make the semi-finals, and I make Williams a strong favourite to do so.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">There are some question marks over the better players in this quarter, with fitness doubts over Caroline Wozniacki and Jo Konta, while the young duo of Sofia Kenin and Dayana Yastremska still have plenty to prove. They're clearly improving, but stats wise, are still notably behind Williams, and indeed, Osaka. It might be unoriginal, but Williams at <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/1">5.20</span> looks a <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">decent price</strong>.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vondrousova capable of making latter stages</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">In my pre-draw preview, I mentioned three players who have strong stats and <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">scope to perform well at a big price</strong> - Marketa Vondrousova, Karolina Muchova and Elise Mertens and all have slightly shortened in the outright market since I wrote that preview, but I still see little in the way to suggest they aren't decent value.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">After writing that pre-draw preview, Vondrousova subsequently lost to eventual winner Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide in straight sets, but what the scoreline doesn't tell you is that Vondrousova actually created more break point chances in the match - she was competitive. She faces a potentially tricky run of Kuznetsova/Giorgi/Kerber in her first three matches but all of this trio aren't performing close to their best currently, and Kerber in particular has shown a <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">marked drop-off</strong> in her service numbers in the last six months. <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>Vondrousova at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="64/1">65.00</span> looks some value to me.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Improving Mertens a potential long shot</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Muchova and Mertens got drawn together in Quarter Three - they're scheduled to meet in the third round - and <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="79/1">80.00</span> I have <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">marginal preference</strong> for Mertens purely given Muchova's lack of warm-up matches. I think it is wise to take on Simona Halep (who they'll need to get past to win the quarter) with the Romanian showing a drop in level across the last six months and while there are also some threats in the top half of the bracket, such as Belinda Bencic and Aryna Sabalenka - who may well be the biggest threat - I think Mertens at a long price has a chance.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Alexandrova and Rybakina could test Barty</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">I also like the chances of Ekaterina Alexandrova in Quarter One, with the Russian showing a very strong, and improving level in recent months. However, after winning Shenzhen last week she's seen market support and been backed in from <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="189/1">190.00</span> to a <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>current</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="119/1">120.00</span>. She'll need to get past Ashleigh Barty to do so, but is showing an <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">excellent level currently</strong>, while the improving Kazakh player Elena Rybakina, <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="179/1">180.00</span> could also give Barty a tough test in round three.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">However, it's Vondrousova and Mertens for us as long-shots here, and <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">I can't look past Williams</strong> to lift her first Grand Slam trophy since she beat her sister Venus here in 2017. Stats-wise, she's as good as she's been during these three years without a Slam final win, and against a field capable of beating each other on any given day, she has a very strong edge in my view.</span></div>
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WTA Australian Open Post-Draw: Serena value at the top of the market

WTA Australian Open Post-Draw: Serena value at the top of the market With the Australian Open starting overnight on Monday, our tennis co...

03:12

Liverpool v Manchester United: Relentless Reds to march on

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<span style="background-color: white;">Liverpool v Manchester United: Relentless Reds to march on</span></h1>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: 700;">Runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool look to extend their record-breaking start to the season with a welcome win over bitter rivals Manchester United at Anfield on Sunday. Mark O'Haire oversees the odds...</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Liverpool v Manchester United</span></span><br style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;" />Sunday January 19, 16:30<br style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;" />Live on Sky Sports</strong></div>
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<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; color: #161616; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Liverpool extend their Premier League lead</strong></h2>
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<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Liverpool</strong> extended their advantage at the top of the Premier League standings to 16 points after overcoming Tottenham 1-0 in the capital last weekend. <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Roberto Firmino</strong>'s first-half goal proved decisive as the record-breaking Merseysiders made it 20 triumphs from 21 league outings, putting them well on course for a first top-flight title for 30 years.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Jurgen Klopp</strong>'s men have now amassed <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">104 points</strong> across their last 38 Premier League matches, scoring in all 21 of their games this term. That record was maintained by Firmino, however, Liverpool were then grateful for poor second-half finishing from their hosts in order to record another victory with the runaway Reds far from their best in London.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Klopp insists Liverpool will continue their relentless assault on top honours, saying post-match, "When someone gives you a trophy it is done but until then you need to fight. It is only the start. We need to continue because our contenders are so strong." The hosts are hoping to have <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fabinho</strong>, Joel Matip and Dejan Lovren back in the squad sooner than later.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Manchester United secure back-to-back wins</strong></h2>
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<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Manchester United </strong>have enjoyed a productive week. The Red Devils easily dispatched rock-bottom Norwich 4-0 at Old Trafford last Saturday to cement their fifth-placed position in the Premier League, before <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Juan Mata</strong>'s superb second-half goal sent United into the FA Cup 4th Round thanks to a 1-0 home victory over Wolves during Wednesday night's replay.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">The Spanish midfielder chipped over keeper John Ruddy to settle matters after being put through on goal by <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Anthony Martial</strong>. It was a deserved win for the hosts, who enjoyed the better opportunities in a tight tussle at Old Trafford. <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ole Gunnar Solskjaer</strong>'s fielded a strong side and could easily have been ahead earlier with Mata and <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Daniel James</strong> going close.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Solskjaer made only three changes to the team with Sergio Romero named in goal, while James and <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Mason Greenwood</strong> also started. Eager to get the job done, the United boss sent on<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> Marcus Rashford</strong> in the 64th minute. But the gamble to involve Rashford may prove costly; the striker pulled up and had to be replaced just 16 minutes after coming on.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Hosts hot favourites to succeed</span></span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Since completing a league double over Manchester United in 2013-14, Liverpool have won just one of their 11 Premier League games against the Red Devils (W1-D5-L5). Nevertheless, the Reds have avoided defeat in each of their past four fixtures across all competitions at Anfield against their bitter rivals (W2-D2-L0) since a 1-0 United win here in January 2016.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Liverpool</strong> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="2/5">1.42</span> host Manchester United <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="8/1">8.80</span> at Anfield for a league game starting the day top of the table for the first time since September 1990, when winning 4-0 under Kenny Dalglish. The Reds are understandably strong favourites to pick up maximum points, defending the third longest unbeaten run in Premier League history (W33-D5-L0).</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">The Merseysiders have proven particularly phenomenal on home soil. Jurgen Klopp's charges have W28-D2-L0 at Anfield since the start of last season, W40-D9-L0 dating back to the beginning of 2017/18 and are unbeaten here since April 2017. Throughout all three aforementioned samples, Liverpool have excelled when welcoming top-six rivals.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Man Utd</strong> were terrific when winning at Man City before Christmas, but that performance has proven to be an outlier. The Red Devils have taken maximum points just three times in 15 Premier League road trips (W3-D4-L8) recently, recording a solitary shutout in that sequence. The midweek excursion and loss of Marcus Rashford is also a major blow.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Relentless Reds to march on</span></span></strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Liverpool were 3-1 winners when last entertaining Man Utd here in December 2019 and it's understandable to expect a similar showdown on Sunday at Anfield. However, the Reds have tightened up significantly since Joe Gomez stepped in to partner Virgil van Dijk in central defence with Jurgen Klopp's troops now keeping six successive clean sheets.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">With United blunted through Marcus Rashford's expected absence, the Reds' improvements in defensive areas, plus the historic rivalry weighing on both sides, it may pay to oppose goals. <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Over 2.5 Goals </strong>is a strong odds-on shot at <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="8/11">1.73</span> and punters might wish to consider laying a high-scoring encounter as part of Saturday's promotional offer on the Exchange.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">My preferred play is to support a home success alongside Under 4.5 Goals at a reasonable <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">1.72</span></span> </strong>on the<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;">Betfair Sportsbook Same Game Multi</span></span></strong>. It's a conservative angle of attack but it's a selection that's regularly proven profitable in Liverpool's match-ups at Anfield against Big Six rivals, whilst the last meeting with United to feature at least five goals was a decade ago.</span></div>
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Liverpool v Manchester United: Relentless Reds to march on

Liverpool v Manchester United: Relentless Reds to march on Runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool look to extend their record-breaking ...

19:10

Australian Open 2020 Tips: Major change? Maybe not

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<span style="background-color: white;">Australian Open 2020 Tips: Major change? Maybe not</span></h1>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; font-weight: 700;">Their dominance is certainly waning, writes Jack Houghton, but the Big Three are still overwhelmingly likely to provide the winner in Melbourne...</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Let's start with a quiz question</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Which player in the men's game won the most matches (59) in 2019, including the most (37) on hard courts, and reached six finals in a row?</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The answer?</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Twenty three-year-old <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Daniil Medvedev</strong>, who, in some respects, had the standout season last year. Lacking, of course, was a major win, and whilst he came close in the US Open - <span style="color: #161616; font-family: inherit;"><span style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(255, 184, 12); border-image: initial; border-left-color: initial; border-left-style: initial; border-right-color: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-top-color: initial; border-top-style: initial; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><b>tipped up here at</b></span></span> <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="17/1">18.00</span> pre-tournament - he wasn't able to dislodge representative of the Big Three, Rafa Nadal, when it mattered.</span></div>
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<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; color: #161616; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Medvedev's challenge</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">And that match was symptomatic of the challenge that Medvedev and others face in 2020 and beyond. Because whereas it's clear that the dominance of the Big Three is waning, they still collected every major between them in 2019, and are combined favourites at around <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="4/9">1.45</span> to win in Melbourne at this year's Australian Open. Medvedev's record against them perhaps says it all: two wins (both against Djokovic) in 12 matches.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Some may argue, then, that news of the Big Three's decline is premature. Well, perhaps it is, especially when set against the backdrop of a decade's <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">spurious speculation</strong> that their end-is-nigh; however, there is now little doubt that the advantage that Djokovic, Nadal and Federer hold over the rest of the men's game is diminishing.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; color: #161616; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An ever-compressed men's game</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">The evidence for this is twofold.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">First, the Elo ratings that I use to measure the state of the men's game have become increasingly squeezed at the top end. As things stand going into the 2020 season proper, the top 16 players are covered by around 200 points. To set that in context, that means that should Djokovic (the top-rated player) face Goffin (the 16th-rated), the world number two would be around a <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="3/10">1.30</span> shot to win.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Compare that to numerous times in the last decade, where 200 Elo points would only have covered the Big Three themselves, with 400-500 points needed to include the top 16. As a comparison, during those less-competitive periods, the world's best player would have started around [1.07] against the number 16.</span></div>
<div style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="background-color: white;">Second, this <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Elo squeezing</strong> is not accounted for by the Big Three playing fewer matches. Yes, it's true that they have all adopted leaner tournament schedules, and that they've all had periods of time out of the game in recent seasons. But when they play, they win less frequently, too. The drop in their match winning percentage isn't staggering, by any means, but there's a downward trend when charting this statistic for all three of them across their careers.</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Australian Open market reflects this decline</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">The relative weakening of the Big Three is demonstrated most starkly when looking at the odds in Melbourne. <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Djokovic </strong>(<span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="5/4">2.26</span>) is not odds-on, <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nadal </strong>(<span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="11/2">6.40</span>) is the biggest price he's been for a major when not coming back from a major injury, and <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Federer </strong>(<span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="10/1">11.50</span>) is not even in the top three, supplanted by 2020's nearly-but-not-quite Medvedev (<span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="8/1">9.20</span>).</span></div>
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<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The effect of the draw</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">These odds are partly accounted for by Friday's draw. Djokovic will likely have to beat <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Stefanos Tsitsipas</strong> - the most dangerous player outside the top four who won the ATP Finals in London to round off 2019 - if he is to claim his eighth Melbourne title, and Nadal has a likely early showdown with mercurial <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Nick Kyrgios</strong> to contend with, as well as <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Dominic Thiem</strong> in his quarter.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Coupled with Djokovic's uninspiring end to 2019, and Nadal's struggles with the fast courts in Melbourne, it's perhaps unsurprising, then, that both seem to be a generous price.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">The draw hasn't been kind to Medvedev either, though, with the likes of Zverev, Goffin and Rublev all laying in wait. In fact, it is Federer - who hasn't played his usual Australian Open warm-up at the temporarily-defunct Hopman Cup - who seems to have the best of the draw, with only <strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Denis Shapovalov</strong> seeming to represent a significant danger.</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;"><strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></strong></span></div>
<h2 style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border: 0px; color: #161616; font-family: BetFairFlama, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 1.5rem; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 1.25; margin: 0px 0px 0.5rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">So, someone outside of the Big Three?</strong></h2>
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<span style="background-color: white;">Well, perhaps, but not if you want a value bet. Because whereas Medvedev is undoubtedly a player on-the-up, it looks as if the market has over-reacted to his 2019 campaign. In my tournament simulations he comes out as a [11.40] shot, behind each of Djokovic (who I have at <span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="7/4">2.72</span>), Nadal (<span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="7/2">4.40</span>), and Federer (<span class="inline-odds" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; border-radius: 2px; border: 0px; color: #161616; font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 3px; position: relative; vertical-align: baseline;" title="9/2">5.40</span>).</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white;">It's on that basis, then, that Djokovic looks the most likely winner, but that Nadal and Federer look the value bets.</span></div>
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Australian Open 2020 Tips: Major change? Maybe not

Australian Open 2020 Tips: Major change? Maybe not Their dominance is certainly waning, writes Jack Houghton, but the Big Three are still...

19:06

The Daily Acca: United to fail to score at Anfield

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The Daily Acca: United to fail to score at Anfield Sunday's edition of the Daily Acca is an 8/1 chance that takes in action from the ...

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Australian Open 2020 Tips: Major change? Maybe not

Let's start with a quiz question

The answer?

Medvedev's challenge

An ever-compressed men's game

The Australian Open market reflects this decline

The effect of the draw

So, someone outside of the Big Three?

The Daily Acca: United to fail to score at Anfield

More smiles for Klopp

Points to stay in Bilbao

Old Lady to keep it clean in Turin