Monday April 13, 19:30
In the end, it did prove to be much ADO about nothing for our good friend Tobias Gourlay, as ADO Den Haag's 2-0 win over Utrecht left him one goal short of landing the overs bet. No matter, because TG once again nailed five winners over the course of the week, which means that between us we've managed 15 winners from 21 bets in this column over the past three weeks.
Enough self-promotion, let's get down to business. We'll start in Spain, and a clash between Valencia and Levante. I once very much enjoyed what I would term as a sunshine break in Valencia. On reflection I may be misremembering the temperatures, because as I strolled around in shorts and a T-shirt, locals huddled together for warmth in sand-coloured knitwear. Brits abroad, eh?
Levante are certainly feeling the heat at the wrong end of the La Liga table, and they are only out of the dropzone on head-to-head record with Almeria, who they recently thrashed 4-1. That was only Levante's second away win of the season, and they are generally pretty poor on the road.
Levante have lost nine of their 15 away games this term, and it's their results against the big boys which are of interest to us today. The Frogs have lost 2-0 at Real Madrid, 5-0 at Barcelona and 3-1 at Atletico Madrid. Today they visit a Valencia side that is fourth in the standings, and has the chance to go three points clear of Sevilla in the race for Champions League qualification.
Valencia are on the up after a much-needed cash injection from businessman Peter Lim, and former Rio Ave coach Nuno Santo is having an excellent debut season. Valencia have a home record which isn't too far short of those boasted by the top three, with 12 wins, two draws and just one loss.
Importantly for our purposes, nine of those 12 home wins were by a margin of two goals or greater. Even with defender Nicolas Otamendi suspended and midfielder Enzo Perez injured, Valencia should have enough quality to win this derby comfortably. Los Che are unbeaten in nine, they have kept a clean sheet in their last four home games, and they haven't lost at home to their local rivals in eight matches at the Mestalla.
Recommended Bet
Back Valencia -1.5 on the Asian Handicap at [2.09]
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