Wolves v Notts Forest: Unders looks the best bet again

Wolves v Nottingham Forest
Friday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Wolves

Kenny Jackett's side find themselves in what most fans would consider a disappointing 14th place even after Saturday's 2-1 win at lowly Rotherham. Glass half-full types though will point out that they have lost just one of their last six and are only five points off the play-offs. Their last two home games have been contrasting 0-0 draws - the one against Burnley would have been considered a point gained but against MK Dons two weeks ago it was very much two points dropped.

With their next two home games against Leeds and Reading both winnable (and both also live on the box) they could put together a festive run and get right back in the battle for a top six place. Kortney Hause is out until the New Year and with Mike Williamson recalled by Newcastle from his loan spell, they are a little bit thin on numbers at the back now.

Nottingham Forest

Dougie Freedman seemed on the brink of the sack last month but three successive home wins, led by that televised Friday night 1-0 triumph over bitter rivals Derby, have moved them up to 15th in the table and given the Scot some much-needed breathing space and got the more optimistic City Ground faithful looking upwards to the top six rather than down at the developing relegation battle.

Chris O'Grady, admired for his work-rate and link-up play, but belittled in some quarters for his poor goal return, scored in both the 3-1 win over Reading and then Saturday's comfortable 3-0 victory against Fulham. Away from home it's a different story though - Forest have lost their last four on the spin and their only wins were the two in the space of four days back in mid-September.

Match Odds

The home side are favourites at 2.22 with Forest priced at 3.65 and the draw at 3.45 in what looks yet another of these tricky second tier games to call. Freedman has talked a good gameall season - even when results weren't backing up his bullish words - and will no doubt be feeling fully vindicated following these three wins in four. However, as noted above, their form on the road has been less than impressive and I'm not sure they can be backed with any confidence.

But we can't ignore the fact that Wanderers' results at home have been a real disappointment with just two wins from their nine games and three defeats. With Benik Afobe not looking quite the same player this season, shorn of Bakary Sako (gone to Crystal Palace) and Nouha Dicko (out for the season injured) alongside him, I'm not confident Wolves have the firepower to break down the visitors here if they set up with men behind the ball.

If pushed I'd probably recommend a small bet on the draw as the most likely result but I'm going to concentrate on the goals market where there's some stronger Championship-wide trends and stats.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

Unders is once again fancied at 1.72 here, while overs is a juicy 2.24. Forest's last three games have featured more than 2.5 goals but their previous eight went below the line, as have 37% of their matches this season, while Wolves' last two at Molineux ended goalless, all of which is why unders looks the most likely outcome again.

Goals are indeed down across the board in the Championship this season with an average of 2.39 per game, as opposed to 2.67 last season, 2.60 the season before that (2013/14) and 2.71 in 2012/13.

And there are good reasons why neither of these sides are in the top-half of the goals scored table for the division - Forest's star striker Britt Assombalonga is out until the New Year, while as noted above Wanderers are without two-thirds of last season's potent attacking trio. This means that backing unders, while not the most original selection, has to be the best bet here.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.72