Serie A Betting: Milan to add to Roma woes

Roma v Milan
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Europe

If Roma fans were hoping that the midwinter break may signal a change of style from their team, then they must have been sorely disappointed by the return against Chievo on Wednesday. All of those Roma frailties were on view as they stuttered to a 3-3 draw. No team in Serie A is better to watch than Rudi Garcia's side, but much of that is down to their weaknesses, rather than their strengths.

Should Roma really be trading at 2.06 for the visit of a team which is only one place and five points behind them? Milan restarted poorly, beaten at home by Bologna, and there's little question that the Rossoneri are a million miles from any kind of contention, but Roma have won only once since the derby victory over Lazio on November 8th, and they haven't beaten anyone of note since they forced their way past Fiorentina at the end of August.

Milan have won their last two away games, and beaten Lazio here at the Olimpico earlier this season, so there's no reason for the occasion or indeed the opposition to strike any kind of fear into them.

And let's face it: Milan should have beaten Bologna. They created chances but simply couldn't score. If they put that right, then they have a big chance of causing what wouldn't really be a shock against a fragile, inconsistent and infuriating Roma.

There'll more than likely be goals, and I'm taking Milan, at a price, to add to the pressure on Mister Garcia. Edin Dzeko lost his appeal, so remains suspended, but Miralem Pjanic, Radja Nainggolan and possibly Francesco Totti are back.

Recommended Bet
Back Milan to beat Roma @ 4.10

Frosinone v Napoli
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport ESPN

It's a far from stellar first weekend back for Serie A, but a familiar friend rears its head in the shape of Napoli away from home against opposition that should be brushed aside.
Under 2.5 Goals is trading at 2.68 for Maurizio Sarri's trip to one of the worst teams in the division, and while all of the statistics point to goals, I think that it's worth looking the other way.

If you look at Frosinone's matches in isolation, then this will be a topsy-turvy thriller. Their last three games have produced 15 goals, but look at them against teams that like to stifle the opposition, to kill the game, to do everything to just get a result. 0-2 against Chievo, 1-1 at Juventus, 0-1 v Udinese and so on. Frosinone can be kept quiet, and they can keep a certain kind of team quiet when the occasion suits. And I think that this weekend is one such occasion.

Napoli are staying stealthily in the Scudetto race, and will come here very confident of a win. But I think that we'll see the calm and composed Napoli: possession based, lethal and then solid. The one that does well away from home, rather than the version that thrills at the San Paolo.

Remember that this is a team which often struggles against the Division's lesser lights. They drew 0-0 in Carpi, 0-0 in Genoa, beat Chievo 1-0, won 2-0 in Verona. All occasions on which attacking instincts were reined in and eyes firmly on the prize. I expect Napoli to win, but only by a goal or two to nil. The "Unders" is worth a small bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Frosinone v Napoli @ 2.68

Inter v Sassuolo
Sunday, 11.30
Live on BT Sport 2

Finally, a word on the game that I will be covering this weekend for BT Sport. I don't expect Sunday morning to be an out of your seat commentary job, as I can see Inter (who restarted with a typical 1-0 win) grinding out another result, this time against Sassuolo.

I think that there's a danger of Eusebio Di Francesco's side fading in the second half of the season, and having dropped points against Frosinone in midweek, I think that they'll struggle to gain momentum against Inter, who are starting to look as if they might hang on in the title race.

It's tempting to back Inter to win the game by a 1-0 scoreline, as that is such a regular outcome when they're involved, but I'll play safe and back the Unders. A routine start to a sleepy Sunday at a half full San Siro. Well you've got to dream, haven't you?

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Inter v Sassuolo @ 1.98