Leicester v Chelsea: Visitors' defence to hold strong in away win

"Of Chelsea’s last seven away matches, five of them were wins by 1-0 or 2-0. With Leicester missing Mahrez and Slimani and Jamie Vardy very much blowing hot and cold this season, there could be clean sheet bonuses paid out to the likes of David Luiz and Cesar Azpilicueta come Saturday night."

Leicester v Chelsea 
Saturday 17:30 
Live on BT Sport 1

Leicester

Leicester sure like to keep us guessing. The first trend of the season was that always performed poorly in the league match before a Champions League tie. The second was that they were solid at home and awful away.

And then all of a sudden they go and beat an in-form Everton away from home in the FA without two of their key players: Islam Slimani and Riyad Mahrez, both away at the African Cup of Nations. What next?

I still think that they're a far better side than their league position suggests but they look a little lightweight in the middle of the park. N'Golo Kante's sale to Chelsea was profitable off the pitch and very costly on it. They're now also without Daniel Amartey, also way on ACON duty though they've brought in Wilfred Ndidi from Genk for £17m. Ndidi is a powerful Nigerian holding midfielder and whether he settles in quickly or not could make a huge difference to the rest of Leicester's season.

Chelsea 

So Chelsea are human after all. On the verge of breaking a Premier League record, they went to White Hart Lane and were beaten 2-0. I don't know what surprised me the most. That Chelsea's normally highly disciplined defence gave Dele Alli so much space or that the Spurs midfielder was that good in the air.

But things were back to normal at the weekend with an easy 4-1 win over Peterborough. John Terry just can't catch a break these days. When he finally gets a game he finds himself the wrong side of the striker through on goal, brings him down and gets sent off. It says a thing or two about his demise that his suspension is little more than a footnote going into this match.

Chelsea don't have any African players in their squad so, bar Terry, Antonio Conte has a full set of players to choose from.

Match Odds

Chelsea are 1.66 and that's what they should be. An away trip to Spurs is just about the hardest fixture in Premier League football at the moment (bar an away trip to Stamford Bridge) so it's best to put that down as a minor blip than to suggest it's the start of any sort of slide.

Leicester did admittedly win this match last season 2-1 but the circumstances couldn't have been any different. The Foxes were in full flight and it was towards the end of Jose Mourinho's doomed last few days at the club. It was the match where Eden Hazard was famously accused of feigning or exaggerating injury and coming off rather than play for his beleaguered manager. But that was Leicester's only win against Chelsea in a league match in their last nine attempts, Opta tell us.

Chelsea should win but that price is a little short for our liking.

Correct score

There are good reasons to think Chelsea can keep a clean sheet here. There was no disgrace in conceding two at White Hart Lane and they were down to ten men when they let Plymouth get one. Besides, their defence in that match was from for being the one that will play on Saturday.

Of Chelsea's last seven away matches, five of them were wins by 1-0 or 2-0. With Leicester missing Mahrez and Slimani and Jamie Vardy very much blowing hot and cold this season, there could be clean sheet bonuses paid out to the likes of David Luiz and Cesar Azpilicueta come Saturday night.

Covering 1-0 (8.60) and 2-0 (9.20) Chelsea wins looks a good strategy here.

Ref Watch 

Andre Marriner averages 3.7 yellows a match and has shown five red cards, three of which were in a Europa League match between Panthinaikos and Ajax. Only 20% of Leicester's home matches have had 45 bookings points or more but the story for Chelsea away matches is very different. 70% of their away matches have had 45 points or more so this market is a tough nut to crack.

Recommended Bets

0.5pts Back Chelsea to win 1-0 @ 8.60
0.5pts Back Chelsea to win 2-0 @ 9.20