Everton v Manchester City: Tenacious Toffees to make life sticky for Pep

"Everton have only lost once at home in the league, while City have struggled to find consistency on the road. At odds-on, Pep Guardiola's side seem too short."

Lay Manchester City at 1.87

Everton v Manchester City
Sunday January 15, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Everton

It'll be a day for reunions at Goodison Park. Everton boss Ronald Koeman will pit his wits against Pep Guardiola, who he played alongside for Barcelona in the European Cup-winning team of 1992. City defender John Stones returns to the club that developed him into one of the most exciting English prospects in the Premier League, while Everton veteran Gareth Barry could well come up against the side with which he won the Premier League and FA Cup.

However, there is little room for sentiment at this stage of the season. After several thinly-veiled digs at the board about transfer funds, Koeman has been able to bolster his squad with the signings of Manchester United midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin and Charlton's exciting young forward Ademola Lookman. Such spending comes with raised expectations attached, and with the top six stretching away from the rest of the Premier League, Everton's aim will surely be to finish at least seventh. The Toffees' FA Cup hopes evaporated thanks to a limp defeat to Leicester last weekend, so the league is the only remaining route to European qualification.

Everton escaped from the reverse fixture with a 1-1 draw at the Etihad, largely thanks to the heroics of keeper Maarten Stekelenburg, who saved two penalties. If Everton are to go one better and beat Guardiola's side, they will have to overcome recent history. Opta tell us that Everton haven't won any of their last seven Premier League games against the Citizens, a sequence that stretches back to March 2013.

Everton can at least take solace from a home record that has generally been impressive. Their only Premier League defeat at Goodison this term was a last-gasp loss to bitter rivals Liverpool. They have beaten Arsenal, and held both Manchester United and Spurs to 1-1 draws

Stekelenburg and James McCarthy are fit again after knocks but may not be risked, while Koeman admits a lack of game time at Old Trafford may prevent Schneiderlin from making his first start. The loss of midfield battler Idrissa Gueye to AFCON duty with Senegal is a huge blow - the Opta stats show he has made a league-high 93 tackles.

Manchester City

In England, we love to build people up, before mercilessly smashing them off the perch we just built for them. Pep Guardiola arrived from Bayern Munich to an extraordinary fanfare, as if he could not only win the Premier League, but also cure the common cold and invent an inexhaustible form of clean energy. After a sticky run of results, he has been now been painted by some as some sort of fraud, a smirking trickster who was winging it all along.

A haul of 21 trophies says otherwise, but there is no doubt that Guardiola hasn't found consistency or fluency as quickly as he did in Munich or Barcelona. City have already lost four times in the Premier League, and three of those defeats have come in their last seven matches. They have fallen seven points behind Chelsea in the title race, and are now only three points ahead of crosstown rivals United, who they beat so convincingly in the first Manchester derby of the season.

City have lost two of their last three Premier League away games. They were edged out 1-0 in a tense game at Liverpool, and champions Leicester wiped the floor with them in a 4-2 defeat at the King Power. If you also consider a comprehensive 2-0 reverse at Spurs, you see that City have come up short on the road a few times against strong opposition, and it's worth noting that five of their seven away wins in the league have come against sides in the bottom half.

Brazilian wonderkid Gabriel Jesus isn't yet ready to feature because of paperwork delays, while Fernandinho is suspended. Leroy Sane and Fernando are carrying knocks, Kevin De Bruyne should feature after recovering from illness, and Vincent Kompany is back in training but is well short of match fitness.

Match Odds

Manchester City are 1.87 to win this, and that feels too short. Everton have only lost once in the league at home, and they've played some big hitters. The loss of Gueye to international duty is a blow, so Schneiderlin's arrival may well have come at a good time.

City can look a bit vulnerable on the road, and in the league they've only kept two clean sheets away from home. Everton have only failed to score once at Goodison in the league, and I think they can grab a result here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is a tricky one. Overs is the favourite here at 1.80, but only three of their ten PL home games have featured three goals or more, and just nine of their 20 league outings have seen an overs bet pay out. However, 14 of City's 20 league games have featured three goals or more, including eight of their ten road matches.

To Score

I don't fancy City to keep a clean sheet here, and of the candidates to breach their defence, Romelu Lukaku appears the most likely. Opta tell us the Belgian has scored three of Everton's last five goals against Manchester City, and he has found the net in three of his last four appearances. I'll happily back him to find the net in 90 minutes at 2.60.

Recommended Bets
Lay Manchester City at 1.87
Back Romelu Lukaku to score at 2.60