"Derby have only lost twice in 15 matches since McClaren returned to the
helm, lifting them away from relegation danger and up to the fringes of
the play-off zone."
Leeds v Derby
Friday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1
Leeds
Garry Monk took a swipe at the scheduling of Leeds'
fixtures and said his team were becoming "the most moved in the country"
after television commitments handed them two games in four days.
Monk countered the demands of the Whites' schedule by making eight changes to his line-up for Monday's 2-1 FA Cup triumph at Cambridge. But a yellow card collected by centre-half Pontus Jansson means the Swede is now suspended for two games giving Leeds a selection quandary at the back.
Left-back Charlie Taylor has already been ruled out but doubts persist over Liam Cooper's involvement. Should Cooper be sidelined, right-back Luke Ayling would have to fill in at centre-back to partner Kyle Bartley at the heart of hosts' defence.
Derby
Derby bounced back from their disappointing 3-0 defeat at Norwich by making five changes for their FA Cup clash at West Brom. Steve McClaren's charges came from behind to claim a 2-1 victory thanks to goals from Darren Bent and Tom Ince in the space of five second-half minutes.
Abdoul Camara impressed in the wide left role in McClaren's 4-3-3 whilst new signing Julien de Sart mad a solid impression filling the holding/controlling role in a midfield three. However, Johnny Russell and Bradley Johnson are both expected to return to their preferred positions in the starting XI here.
Meanwhile, David Nugent could be handed a debut. But
with Ince and Bent having hit five of the last six goals scored by the
Rams and 12 of the last 17, the signing from Middlesbrough may have to
wait for an opportunity from the bench.
Match Odds
Leeds suffered four consecutive league defeats at
Elland Road against Derby between 2006 and 2013 but the Whites are
unbeaten at home since (W1-D2-L0) when taking on the Rams in front of
their home supporters.
Monk's men are offered at 2.68
to claim a ninth home success of the season and fifth on the spin at
Elland Road. It's a generous quote considering the hosts have already equalled their tally of league wins for the whole of the 2015/16 season (14) in just 25 games this season.
Only two Championship sides have shipped fewer home goals and although
the carrot of potentially moving eight points clear of seventh-placed
Derby is attractive, Leeds' defensive concerns ensure I'm happy to look
elsewhere.
Derby 3.15
have only lost twice in 15 matches since McClaren returned to the helm,
lifting them away from relegation danger and up to the fringes of the
play-off zone. The Norwich loss ended an unbeaten run of 10 games, which
featured eight wins and two draws.
But performances haven't always matched results and County's inability
to dominate, especially on the their travels where they've W5-D3-L4, so
I'll enter the Asian Handicap market and get the draw onside at 1.78 by backing Derby +0/0.50 - we'll make money should the visitors avoid defeat with a full pay-out on the cards should the Rams pick up maximum points.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Leeds have kept their sheets clean in each of their past four Elland
Road outings but with potentially only one centre-half available, I'm
not especially keen on following the Under 2.5 Goals trends at 1.62.
It's a selection that has proven profitable in nine of the Whites' last
10 when welcoming top-half teams, as well as eight of Derby's previous
10 trips to top-six teams. Put the pairs home/away records together and
the Under 2.5 Goals bet has also banked in 18/25 (72%) of league fixtures.
Over 2.5 Goals is available at a bulbous 2.46
but with visiting keeper Scott Carson keeping more clean sheets than
any other Championship goalkeeper this season (14), a low-scoring duel
loos likeliest.
Recommended Bets
Back Derby +0/0.50 Asian Handicap @ 1.78
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