League One Betting: Shakers unlikely to make waves at Ewood

Alan Dudman collected another full house of winners on Tuesday, and he is backing a couple of Saturday teams including Plymouth. Our third tier man also previews Monday's live TV game at Ewood Park...

Oxford United 2.40 v Plymouth Argyle 2.90, the draw 3.40

If the price is wrong, we go in again. The best kept secret in League One continues to be the odds on Plymouth, and quite why the form team in the division can be backed at almost 2/1 is a mystery to me.

You could be mistaken for thinking they are playing a top side for Saturday, and Oxford are anything but.

The U's are searching for a new manager, and that's a situation that cannot help caretaker boss Derek Fazackerley. With links to David Unsworth (although ruled out), Frank Lampard and Sol Campbell, speculation off the pitch is reaching quite exciting highs.

On the pitch however, the defensive issues need to be addressed. United have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches with just one clean sheet in 12. Call me predictable by backing Plymouth again here, but that Oxford record is not one to tackle the Greens with. The U's form is not great either; with four losses from their last five league matches. Compared to Derek Adams and his men winning nine of their last 13, it's a no-brainer here.

A play on the Over 2.5 Goals should also be added here. Oxford are losing and conceding, and for the Overs bet, they have hit the target in all of their previous five matches.

Argyle netted four on Tuesday with a big win against Wimbledon, and are now up to 8th. My soft spot continues by backing Plymouth - especially if they are offered at 2.90.

Recommended Bets 
Back Plymouth Argyle Draw No Bet v Oxford United 0.5pt @ 2.10
Back Over 2.5 Goals Plymouth v Oxford 0.5pt @ 1.91

Southend United 2.96 v Portsmouth 2.48, the draw 3.30

The market has this fairly evenly matched, although Portsmouth are usually a team that can go off slightly shorter than they should. Indeed, looking at the early exchanges in terms of price - Pompey were the favourites, and I am very much against them here at around 2.60.

Saturday's match at Roots Hall will be a difficult game. For a start, the pitch in Essex is not the carpet that Portsmouth are used to, and these are two teams that are much better at home. Kenny Jackett's side have lost nine on the road - so I am not sure they should be the shorter of the two anyway.

The hosts have improved since Chris Powell took over from Phil Brown, and I am fully paid-up member of the Powell fan club. It was an excellent appointment to recruit the former England left-back, and the Shrimpers have not been beaten in four games since he took charge of the club.

Southend were held on Tuesday at Bury 0-0, but that can rank as a point earned, as the Shakers have improved themselves since changing manager. Powell's side lacked a bit of quality in front of goal, but the clean sheet gained would have offset that.

Previously the hosts gained two big wins at Roots Hall by beating leaders Wigan (3-1) and Scunthorpe (3-2) - which is no mean feat scoring six against two of the top teams.

Pompey are a little bit light for me in the middle of the park, and don't score too many away from home either with just 14 in 15 games. I can leave them alone for Saturday.

Recommended Bet 
Back Southend United Draw No Bet v Portsmouth 0.5pt @ 2.10

Blackburn Rovers 1.51 v Bury 6.60, the draw 4.10

Monday 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football

It looks fairly straightforward this one; with one of the best teams in League One taking on one of the poorest. However, taking the short odds on Rovers recently at home has stung a few - with a 2-2 against Oldham, 1-1 with Northampton and a 2-2 with Scunthorpe.

I wouldn't put up a 1.51 shot anyway, but those results are bothering me, as two of those were games that Blackburn were expected to win - and were priced-up accordingly.

Bury might be able to put up some resistance looking at their improved form, and caretaker boss Ryan Lowe has made them far more resilient since he took over from Chris Lucketti, with the Shakers now unbeaten in five.

The Gigg Lane club collected a 0-0 on Tuesday night with Southend - and that was their first clean sheet since November. Previously they gained a 2-2 with Bradford courtesy of a late equaliser from George Miller - Bury's man in form with four goals in his last five.

With just 13 scored on the road all season and just one win away, it is very difficult to back Bury (although never be put off by a price in this league).

Rovers have the quality to kill off teams, especially with on-loan Newcastle striker Adam Armstrong scoring. He netted twice in midweek for the 2-1 win against Portsmouth, and the 21-year-old's finishing and lethal pace could be too much here for the Shakers.

Backing Bury 'No' in the Clean Sheet market won't be much of a price, so my only play here is the Asian Handicap. Blackburn have scored in every match bar one at Ewood this term, and they have seven victories by a two goal or more margin.

Recommended Bet 
Back Blackburn Rovers -1 on Asian Handicap v Bury 0.5pt @ 1.85