The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester United v Chelsea

Man Utd v Chelsea
Sunday 14:05, Sky Sports Main Event
Match Odds: Man Utd 2.30, Chelsea 3.40, The Draw 3.40.

Pogba likely to return

Jose Mourinho's team selection was the major talking point after the midweek Champions League matches this week, and all eyes will be on Paul Pogba here.

Pogba was omitted from the starting midweek trip to Sevilla, a 0-0 draw, although the Frenchman was forced into action early after Ander Herrera's injury. Here, Mourinho must decide quite how to incorporate Pogba into his side - which, coupled with a major decision about which formation to use, leaves United with plenty of question marks in their starting XI.

Mourinho has previously played a very reactive system against Chelsea, effectively deploying a narrow four-man defence in conjunction with very hard-working wingers, which looks more like a back six at times. Mourinho is determined not to be outnumbered by Chelsea's effective front five, which means he's liable to filling the side with defensive-minded players.

Man Utd back three?

But earlier this season Mourinho switched to a three-man defence, effectively matching Chelsea'sdefensive setup, and there's every chance he could do something similar here. At least one of Phil Jones, Marcos Rojo and Eric Bailly may return in defence alongside Chris Smalling and/or Victor Lindelhof, with Antonio Valencia and Ashley Young pushing forward to play up against Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses respectively.

Pogba will surely return to his starting role in a central midfield, presumably alongside ex-Chelsea midfielder Nemanja Matic. Herrera has often played a key role in this fixture in terms of marking Eden Hazard, but without that option Mourinho may have to ask his right-sided centre-back to stick tight, with Valencia tucking inside.

Going forward Mourinho will look for speed here, which probably means no Juan Mata against his former side. Expect Romelu Lukaku to spearhead United's attack, with Alexis Sanchez playing from the left. Jesse Lingard could start in the inside-right position.

Hazard to play false nine?

Antonio Conte's Chelsea played well against Barcelona in midweek, and with five days between that clash and this fixture, there's every chance he'll name an identical starting XI. That would mean Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud sitting out, with Hazard playing as a false nine.

Hazard prefers playing as an inside-left and therefore Morata could return in place of Pedro Rodriguez. Willian, who scored a fine goal against Barca and also struck the woodwork twice from similar positions outside the box, will surely retain his place here.

Cesc Fabregas showed he can offer defensive discipline against Barcelona and therefore should keep his place here. This could be an interesting battle between him and Pogba, two outstanding attack-minded central midfielders often accused of lacking the requisite positional sense to play in a two-man midfield against strong opposition.

Potential defensive changes

Defensively, Conte may make a change. Andreas Christensen made a crucial error against Barcelona and looked a little nervous throughout. David Luiz is still out injured, so there's a chance Gary Cahill could return to the side. With pace required against this United attack, though, it makes more sense to continue with Christensen.

This game will probably be decided in midfield. Fabregas and Pogba can dominate games like few others in the Premier League, but also have a habit of leaving their midfield partner isolated. Kante can cope with that, his former colleague Matic struggles and has looked rather immobile in recent weeks. With Hazard likely to be collecting the ball in pockets of space between the lines, that could cause United serious problems.

I think Chelsea are overpriced for this one, and Conte could get the better of Mourinho tactically. I'll back the away side at 3.60.

The Betfair Trader - Alan Thompson

Both sides got very different draws out of their Champions League fixtures in midweek. United put in a very “professional” performance at Sevilla to secure a 0-0 result, while Chelsea had to put in much more effort in a 1-1 draw with Barcelona.

The Red Devils' league form has been inconsistent lately, winning just two of their last five in all competitions and their performances have been well below par. They could find themselves in third place at the end of the weekend if results don’t go their way. By contrast, Antonio Conte’s side seem to be coming out of their sticky patch, they are now unbeaten in their last three and boasting a super record against their rivals, losing only one of their last 14 meetings.

But Old Trafford is still a difficult place for any side to go and get anything from, they have suffered defeat there just once in the league this season and conceded just five goals, two of which came in the defeat against City.

Despite being difficult to beat at home I still think the market has overvalued United at 2.36that is too low for me, I had them nearer 2.60. Chelsea look a far more attractive price to me but rather than back them to take the win, that price allows you to back them in the Asian Handicap with a quarter goal meaning the draw is also a winner for you.

I think this will be a tight encounter and the Under 2.5 goals market looks to be about right at 1.80 to me. So I will be backing Chelsea on the Asian Handicap +0 & + 0.5 at anything over 2.00.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Michael Cox - Back Chelsea @ 3.60

Alan Thompson - Back Chelsea on the Asian Handicap +0 & + 0.5 at 2.00