Bundesliga Betting: Lightning could Streich twice against Bayern

Bayern Munich were held to a rare draw last Saturday, and Kevin Hatchard thinks they may be thwarted again this weekend...

Freiburg can keep it tight in Black Forest tussle

Freiburg v Bayern Munich
Sunday March 04, 17:00 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bayern are cruising towards a sixth consecutive Bundesliga title, not just because of their excellence, but because of the failure of their rivals to mount any sort of challenge. Take last weekend as an example: Borussia Dortmund only drew with Augsburg, while Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig all lost.

The champions also failed to win last weekend, as they were held to a 0-0 draw by Hertha Berlin. It was the first time since May 2015 that the Bavarians had failed to score in a competitive home match. Jupp Henyckes' men didn't play particularly badly, but they didn't take their chances against a Hertha team that played with dogged determination.

Now Bayern a trip to a Freiburg side that continues to punch well above its weight. Christian Streich's Breisgau-Brasilianer have lost just once in their last 12 matches, and at home they have suffered just one defeat in their last 16 Bundesliga outings. The Schwarzwaldstadion is a tough place to go - the crowd are on top of you, it's usually freezing cold, and Streich has an uncanny knack of getting more out of his players than can reasonably be demanded.

Last season it took a wonder goal right at the death from Robert Lewandowski for Bayern to win at Freiburg, and on the road FCB have been winning, but not always by a big margin. They have won by two goals or more in just three of their last nine Bundesliga away matches.

Freiburg will make life tough for Bayern, and former Bayern striker Nils Petersen is in the form of his career. He has 12 Bundesliga goals this term, his best ever tally.

I'm happy to give Freiburg a two-goal start on the Asian Handicap against a Bayern team that's trying to maintain its intensity in the knowledge that winning the title is pretty much a formality this season.

Recommended Bet
Back Freiburg +2 on the Handicap at 10/11 (Sportsbook)

Faltering Foals there for the taking

Borussia Monchengladbach v Werder Bremen
Friday March 02, 19:30 GMT
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Werder Bremen boosted their survival hopes significantly last weekend as they won the Nordderby 1-0 against their old rivals Hamburg. A late own-goal from Rick van Drongelen proved to be the winner, but although the goal arrived in messy circumstances, it was just reward for Werder's willingness to commit men forward in the closing stages of such a high-pressure game.

Now Werder face one of their least favourite opponents. The Opta stats tell us that SVW have lost six of their last seven meetings with Borussia Monchengladbach, but in truth there isn't much to fear from the Foals in their current state.

Gladbach won 1-0 at Hannover, but were far from dominant, and they have won just three of their last 11 league games. Skipper Lars Stindl has now endured more than 1000 minutes without a league goal, and attacking talisman Raffael is still out with a muscle injury.

The Foals have been dealing with a long injury list for almost the entire season, and the players who have had to shoulder the increased burden are starting to flag.

Werder have been playing really well under new boss Florian Kohfeldt, and since the start of December they have won at both Schalke and Borussia Dortmund, and given Bayern a scare at the Allianz Arena before eventually losing 4-2.

Injury-hit Gladbach seem too short to me at 1.97.

Recommended Bet
Lay Borussia Monchengladbach at 1.97

Koln can use the crowd and Leipzig win to drag themselves up

FC Koln v Stuttgart
Sunday March 04, 14:30 GMT
Live on Betfair Live Video

I continue to be flabbergasted by the effect coachTayfun Korkut has had on Stuttgart. They have won their last three matches 1-0, and VfB are suddenly a healthy seven points clear of the bottom three. Striker Daniel Ginczek and Mario Gomez have led the line well as a burly pairing, and young defenders Benjamin Pavard and Timo Baumgartl have excelled. Korkut, who had a hitherto unimpressive record as a coach, has hit the ground running with his hometown club.

However, I think the winning run may come to an end in Cologne this weekend. Koln produced one of the most extraordinary results of last weekend, as they came from behind to beat RB Leipzig at the Red Bull Arena. For 40 minutes, Koln were hopeless, but by the end of the match they fully deserved their victory. Attacking midfielder Leonardo Bittencourt got the winner on his first appearance since 2018, and there's no doubt that the easing of the Koln injury crisis is boosting their chances of picking up results.

I have to admit this is more of a gut feeling than anything statistically solid, but I saw the fire in Koln last week, and the fact they are only bottom on goal difference will ignite the crowd ahead of Sunday's game.

I really fancy Koln to win this and drag themselves closer to safety, so despite Stuttgart's revival, that's what I'm backing. Koln have won four of their last eight Bundesliga matches, and the crowd can get them over the line against a team with just one away win all season.

Recommended Bet
Back FC Koln to win at 2.44