Liverpool v Southampton: Reds can finish off big week with solid home win

Liverpool v Southampton
Saturday 22 September, 15:00

Changes likely after big wins

Liverpool stretched their winning run to six this season with Tuesday's thrilling 3-2 Champions League victory over Paris Saint-Germain, which followed quickly after last weekend's impressive 2-1 win away to Tottenham in the Premier League.

Jurgen Klopp's midfield three on Tuesday night was James Milner, Gini Wijnaldum and Jordan Henderson, but it might be time to rotate and bring in Naby Keita and/or Fabinho for his full debut.

Klopp has options up front too after Daniel Sturridge came in for Roberto Firmino and scored the opener against PSG, with Firmino then coming off the bench to grab the dramatic late winner.

Ings ineligible

Southampton have picked up their form with a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace and Monday night's 2-2 home draw with Brighton, plus an EFL Cup win away to the Seagulls, but some of the gloss was taken off by the fact that they gave up a two-goal lead on Monday in the final quarter of the match.

Danny Ings is ineligble under the terms of his loan deal from Liverpool, which will become permanent next season. That is a blow for Southampton as he has scored in three of his five Premier League appearances, which amounts to 50% of their total goals.

Van Dijk a big factor

Liverpool appear less susceptible to a surprise setback and, along with impressive results like those against Tottenham and PSG in the past week, they are routinely beating lesser sides these days.

Since their last defeat against a team outside the big six - 1-0 at Swansea in January - their record in that category is W12 D3 L0.

It is hard not to link that strength to the arrival of Virgil van Dijk in the January transfer window. His first Premier League start for the Reds was in the Swansea defeat but since then Liverpool have lost only four in 25 in all competitions with the Dutch defender in the line-up and all four were against teams of Champions League calibre.

Liverpool's home record against teams outside the big six since January is W7 D1 L0 and six of the wins have been to nil and the same number (but not the same six) have been by two goals or more, so those are the obvious bets to consider for longer odds than Liverpool's win odds of 1.22.

The pick is a Liverpool win to nil at 1.87 with the majority of Liverpool's home wins having coming in that fashion with Van Dijk in the side.

Opta point out that Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 23 Premier League games at Anfield (W15 D8), their best run in the competition since August 2009, and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last seven Premier League home games.

Southampton are no PSG and their only points this season have come against teams currently in the bottom half of the table - Burnley, Crystal Palace and Brighton.

Last season their record against the big six was W0 D3 L9 - including two defeats to nil against Liverpool, 3-0 (away) and 2-0 (home).

Perhaps Southampton's best hope lies in Liverpool's performance level dropping after the midweek Champions League match and the figures from last season are interesting, with Klopp's side having a W4 D6 L3 record in those circumstances.

The home record was not too bad, however, and Liverpool's squad is much deeper now. Even with a drop off, they should still take the three points and the win to nil is a decent way to cover the possibility of a scrappy victory.

Off-putting goals figures

Last season Liverpool were more reliable for over 2.5 goals on the road and the early signs are that it might be a similar story this term, partly because most visiting teams have difficulty scoring at Anfield.

Since the start of last season 12 of Liverpool's 21 home games (57%) have had over 2.5 goals and that's off-putting when it comes to goals-related bets.

In the same period Southampton have scored none or one in 16 of their 21 away games, which suggests not much should be expected of them especially with Ings unavailable.

Opta Stat

Southampton have won just three of their 19 Premier League visits to Anfield (W3 D6 L10), their last victory coming in September 2013. The Saints are 18.50 for an unlikely win.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Liverpool win to nil at 1.87