NRL FINALS PREVIEW WEEK THREE: ROOSTERS V RABBITOHS

Sydney Roosters v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Saturday, 22 September, 7:40pm
Allianz Stadium, Sydney

Two old rivals face off at Allianz Stadium as the Sydney Roosters host the South Sydney Rabbitohs. The Roosters have had the week off after beating Cronulla 21-12 a fortnight ago. The Bunnies have had a one-point loss and a one-point win in the finals so far. A 13-12 win against the St. George Illawarra Dragons was remarkable for the fact that Adam Reynolds kicked not one, not two, but three field goals late in the game.

Only points differential separated these two proud clubs at the end of the home and away season, with the Roosters finishing on top of the ladder and awarded its fourth minor premiership in six seasons. Neither side has any key injury nor suspension worries ahead of this match, with Bunnies captain Greg Inglis taking an early guilty plea for a dangerous tackle on Tim Lafai last weekend and received no suspension.

Recent form

The Roosters have had the better of this rivalry in recent times, winning four of its past five matches against Souths. In round six it was the Bunnies who were victorious by a 26-14 scoreline. A three-try outburst just before and after half-time set up their victory.

In round 22 at ANZ Stadium, the Roosters saluted by four points. The Bunnies had 57 per cent possession in that game and dominated most statistical categories except the one that counts the most, the scoreboard. The Roosters were poor with ball in hand, completing at only 70 per cent, as centre Latrell Mitchell’s accurate kicking was one of the reasons they stayed in the contest.

Stats That Matter

• This is the last match taking place at Allianz Stadium before it is being demolished and rebuilt. The Bunnies only have a 32 per cent winning record at the ground, compared to the Roosters’ 64 per cent winning mark.
• The Roosters are 2-4 against the spread against Souths at Allianz Stadium since 2013. They are two-point favourites in this match.
• This match features the best defensive team in the Roosters (373 points conceded) against the best attacking team in Souths (623 points scored)
• These two teams have both been the best in the competition against the spread in the 2018 season, covering 15 times.
• Adam Reynolds has slotted five field goals this season, while the Roosters’ lone one-pointer came against Cronulla a fortnight ago.

Final thoughts

A spot in the Grand Final is up for grabs when two of the fiercest rivals in rugby league lock horns on Saturday night. The Wolf knows this match won’t be decided until the dying stages and there is no halfback better at controlling the game than the Roosters’ number seven, Cooper Cronk. The Bunnies will be better for their last minute heroics against the Dragons last weekend, but how much petrol have they spent getting to the preliminary final? The Roosters have stumbled at this hurdle before as favourites, most notably last season against the North Queensland Cowboys. They are a different team this year with Cronk at the helm and should get over the line in a classic.

How It Shapes Up

Roosters by 4.

Recommended Bets

Best: Sydney 1-12 ($2.75)

Value: Roosters / Under 36.5 ($3.45)

First Tryscorer: Joseph Manu ($15)