Naomi Osaka (-4.0) @ $1.90
Hopefully you listened to the Wolf on Day 8 and backed Osaka to beat Sabalenka at $2.28, as well as $15 for the tournament. The Japanese has now come into $8 and will continue to plunge after she takes care of the unseeded Ukrainian Lecia Tsurenko. Her upset win in the second round against Caroline Wozniacki has set up a nice draw to the Quarter Finals, but this is where it will stop when she takes on the rampaging Osaka. Her power and placement has been a real feature this tournament, and she’ll be too good for Tsurenko in this. Should clear the 4-game headstart.
Novak Djokovic 3-0 @ $1.52
Can lightning strike twice for John Millman? The Australian played the game of his life against Federer, but what he did mention in his post-game interview was that the Swiss champion was off. He’s not wrong! 10 double faults, 49% of first serves in (63% this year) and a staggering 77 unforced errors. Taking nothing away from the Aussie, but it would take Djokovic to replicate Federer’s horror performance for Millman to prevail to the Semi Finals. The pair met at Queen’s Club June this year where Djokovic was victorious 6-2 6-1. I expect a much closer match this time around, but Novak will be keen to conserve energy going into the third round and spend as little time on court as possible.
Kei Nishikori @ $2.28
Has formed quite the rivalry with Marin Cilic over their careers, meeting for the 15th occasion. A rematch of the 2014 US Open Final, this will be the fourth time they’ve played against each other at Flushing Meadows and although Nishikori leads their career record 8-6, it’s Cilic that holds a 2-1 record at the US Open. The Japanese has been flying though, and I’m backing him in here to reach the Semi. He’s only dropped the one set this tournament, makes very few unforced errors and one of the better returns of serve on tour. If he can continue to get balls back, he’ll trouble the Croatian.
Madison Keys win / Over 20.5 total games @ $2.65
Keys is looking to go one better this year after losing the 2017 US Open Final, and she takes on Carla Suarez Navarro. She holds a 3-0 record over the Spaniard dating back to 2013, and the way she’s playing at the moment I expect her to once again get the win. Suarez Navarro is dangerous though, dismantling Maria Sharapova in the fourth round and despite not beating Keys previously she has troubled her. All three matches have gone to three sets and cleared the 20.5 total games line. Even if she doesn’t take a set on this occasion, it will no doubt be two tight sets.