Tuesday evening's action at the US Open sees the first two men's quarter-finals take place, and after a third win on the spin, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, gives his thoughts...
Millman shocks Federer to give us a day eight winner
We picked up another winner on day eight of the US Open, although it may have disappointed many tennis fans - not only did John Millman cover the game handicap but he actually beat Roger Federer to make the quarter-finals.
The main beneficiary of this was Novak Djokovic, with the Serb now into the 2.34 market favourite purely due to the fact that he now has to play Millman, as opposed to Federer, in tomorrow's quarter final. I'll be looking at that Djokovic v Millman match in detail tomorrow.
Del Potro and Isner likely to create a serve-orientated match
Prior to this, however, there are the first two quarter-finals taking place tonight, with the first, Juan Martin Del Potro against John Isner, taking place not before 18:30 UK time. For this, Del Potro is the 1.34 market favourite, with Isner the underdog at 3.90. My model had Isner at [3.44], making the current market line some value, but not enough to consider worthwhile - if it was a few ticks higher, around the 4.20 mark, I'd look at Isner as today's recommendation.
As most readers will suspect, I anticipate it to be a rather serve-orientated match-up. Del Potro's projected hold percentage is in the mid 90s, with Isner's also just below the 90% mark. However, these numbers - on a not particularly quick hard court venue - only generate a first set tiebreak percentage of around 35% based on my numbers, and certainly doesn't make the 4/5 with the Sportsbook on 7-6 to either player in the first set as value.
It's difficult to recommend a pre-match line here, unless Isner drifts around five ticks or so, but I do expect a pretty competitive match, and certainly, not a walk in the park for the Argentine.
Nadal with a considerable return edge over Thiem
Indeed, the second quarter-final tonight is unlikely to be a walk in the park either for our outright pick, Rafa Nadal. Prior to the tournament, a quarter-final against an out of form and injured Dominic Thiem probably wouldn't have worried me too much, but Nadal wasn't at his best in the previous round - a four set win over Nikoloz Basilashvili - while Thiem impressed with a 3-0 win over Kevin Anderson, as underdog.
Even saying this, Nadal is still a 1.30 favourite, and my model broadly agreed with this line. Across the last 12 months on hard court, he's held 0.6% more than his Austrian rival, and broken opponents 9.4% more, so he does boast a considerable edge.
In addition, they've met on 10 previous occasions, with Nadal winning seven, but every single head to head match has been on clay - it's difficult also to work out the value of this lead. It's also worth noting that Thiem has performed best against Nadal in quicker clay conditions - when the conditions have been slower, he hasn't found answers against the King of Clay.
However, as with the first match, I can't recommend a position at market prices. Perhaps the best avenue for this evening is either to wait for a drift on Isner, or to look at potential in-play angles during the matches.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Back John Isner to beat Juan Del Potro at 4.20 or bigger
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