Watford v Chelsea Wednesday, 19:30 Live on Sky Sports
Watford hard to catch right
Despite sitting in a very healthy seventh place, Watford can be a difficult team to bet on. Against all expectations they started the season with four wins out of four, a run capped by a 2-1 success over Spurs.
They also won away at Wolves when not expected to before beating Huddersfield but either side of those back-to-back victories, they suffered winless streaks of five and six, losing seven of those 11 matches.
The chaos is summed up in their record at Vicarage. Only Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal and Wednesday's opponents Chelsea have won more home games and yet Watford have suffered the same number of home defeats as bottom club Fulham and conceded more on their home patch than second-bottom Huddersfield.
Chelsea spluttering after fast start
The Blues were the slightly surprising third member of a trio of early pacesetters, enjoying top spot for a while as they took 28 points from their opening 12 games.
But they've dropped 11 points behind leaders Liverpool and seven back from Manchester City after slumping to defeat in three of their last six Premier League games.
The 3-1 defeat to Tottenham was forgivable even if the performance was terrible but a 2-1 loss to Wolves and Saturday's 1-0 home reverse against Leicester pretty much confirms this particular Chelsea side won't be pulling off their past trick of following up a poor season with a title-winning one.
Even a top four finish is now a concern with Spurs, Arsenal and possibly a resurgent Manchester United to fight off.
The Blues certainly don't have happy memories of this fixtures from last year after they were beaten 4-1 following three Watford goals in the last six minutes.
Watford look overpriced
With the visitors wobbling and Watford on the up again, the home win certainly appears big at 5.50.
Conversely, Chelsea look very cramped at 1.73 for a side which has lost two of its last three away games.
The Draw is 4.00 although note that Watford haven't had a home draw yet and Chelsea have played out just a single stalemate on the road.
One obvious hole in backing Watford would be that they've lost at home to Liverpool, City and United but they were competitive in all three games and, of course, there was that 2-1 win over Spurs.
Chelsea have won five of eight on their travels so have been a decent away side until recent times.
I have a sneaking feeling they may bounce back here but the price stops me getting involved in the match odds market.
Go for goals
Watford home games are good for goals (average 3.22) but Over 2.5 looks short enough at 1.78.
This fixture has been goal-laden in recent times, though, with the last three ending 4-1, 4-2 and 4-3.
Add the above to the fact that the last eight Watford home games have all featured at least three goals and I think there's enough there to think Over 3.5 looks justifiable at 2.96.
Home scorers appeal
However, another way to play the goals expectation is to look an individual scorers.
One that jumps out is Gerard Deulofeu at 16/5.
The Spaniard, who signed from Barcelona, is showing why he was considered good enough to be strutting his stuff at the Nou Camp with two very Barca-style goals in his last two games and, in such confident mood, I can't let him go at that price.
Deulofeu scored in this fixture last season while Roberto Pereyra scored home and away against Chelsea in the 2017/2018 campaign.
The Argentine is 4/1 to find the net and that's worth a go given his record of four goals in nine top-flight home games this term.
For Chelsea, Eden Hazard is back in the goals again after two in his last three but 11/10 doesn't seem any real value.
He's one away from his century for Chelsea for those who believe landmarks make something more likely. Hazard hit the bar against Leicester on Saturday.
Same Game Multi
Playing the two goalscorer picks in the Same Game Multi market throws up some decent prices.
Deulofeu to net in a Watford win is just under 11/1 while a Pereyra goal in a home victory is nearly 14/1.
Remember, both of those bets would have landed last year.
1pt Over 3.5 goals at 2.96
1pt Gerard Deulofeu to score anytime at 16/5 (Sportsbook)
1pt Roberto Pereyra to score anytime at 4/1 (Sportsbook)