Inter v Napoli Wednesday, 19:30 Live on Eleven Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
It seems strange that such a big game is being played on Boxing Day, and there's a danger of a crucial second place shootout being lost amidst Christmas celebrations in Italy.
Strictly of course, Napoli are still in the title race as they trail Juve by eight points and still have them to play at home, but the Champions have been so impressive that they don't look like stumbling too often, and so all that Carlo Ancelotti's team can do is keep winning, and keep hoping.
Neither team has been in any kind of form lately, and with both dropping out of the Champions League on the final Matchday, it feels as though heads have gone down. Both know the magnitude of this, though. Should Napoli lose then Inter are right back into the second place story, and should they win, then they move four clear of Luciano Spalletti'sside.
Inter have, once again, been incredibly frustrating to watch this season, a part of their make-up that was once again evident in their draw with Chievo last time. They have won only one of their last eleven in the League against Napoli, and have lost two of their last seven here against them.
Mauro Icardi tends not to play well against Napoli, and if he's ineffective, then Inter look terribly one dimensional. I think that Napoli are well placed to come up with a big Christmas win, and help build the pressure on Luciano Spalletti.
Napoli are marginal favourites to win this, and there's a strong argument to say that they should be a bit shorter, especially after Radja Nainggolan was frozen out of the Inter squad for tardiness.
More Empoli Overs
Torino v Empoli Wednesday, 17:00 Live on Betfair Live Video and Eleven Sports 2
Empoli might have lost against Sampdoria on Saturday, but they did the trick for this column as they were involved in yet another high scoring game, going down eventually by four goals to two.
As I explained last time, that continues a recent trend for the Tuscan side, as four of their last five games have now gone Over 3.5 Goals, with each of their last eight going Over 2.5. Their last nine games have averaged 4.4 goals, and that's a statistic of which we should take notice.
Torino host them on Boxing Day, and given a recent sense that Walter Mazzarri's team are refining their own goalscoring form, I think that this could be another game which is full of goals. Torino's recent results means that we can get a price as well, and that makes it a sensible play.
Francesco Caputo is in excellent form for Empoli, and Andrea Belotti is getting among the goals again for Il Toro (well, two in his last four), and with both teams likely to create chances, there is, like in the Empoli v Samp game, enough quality to put them away.
Over 3.5 Goals are trading at3.30 at the moment, which is much too big, and as we look for a bit of Boxing Day value, this game jumps out.
Genoa getting into a groove
Cagliari v Genoa Wednesday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
Cagliari are in poor form at the moment and Rolando Maran's team welcome a resurgent Genoa to Sardinia, with both sides looking to escape the relegation battle.
The Sardinians have failed to win in their last seven in the League, and have won just two of their last ten in all competitions, with both of those victories against a fairly hapless Chievo team. Three League wins all season tells its own story, and even though they're considerably better at home than they are away, they could yet feel the pressure against Cesare Prandelli's team.
Cagliari draw far too many games, and Genoa have been losing more than they would like, but their Krzysztof Piatek inspired win against Atalanta last time was a significant improvement in performance, and there's just a sense that Prandelli might be starting to work his magic.
Genoa have won four of their last five Serie A games against Cagliari, and given that the Sardinians have been behind in both of their last Serie A home games, I think that Piatek and co should be good enough to push home any advantage.