It's not very often that you'll find me siding with a team that has lost four on the spin but there are two very good reasons as to why I'm backing Burnley on Saturday; one is that they almost always score at Turf Moor, and the other is that Wolves have a very poor recordagainst teams towards the bottom of the table.
Wolves have been terrific in their first season back in the Premier League and I have to admit they've done much better than I expected them to. Nuno Espirito Santo's men are in a great position to record a top 10 finish this term, and they are currently in the driving seat to finish 'best of the rest', sitting seventh in the table, one point above Watford.
But Perhaps just a quick glance at Wolves' recent results sums up their season in a nutshell. They drew away to Chelsea and beat Manchester United in the FA Cup, but just a week or so before those superb results they lost to bottom-of-the-table Huddersfield.
This is a side that seemingly raises their game brilliantly when presented with a difficult challenge, but it's also a team that can suffer from complacency in games they are expected to win. Wolves have lost twice to Huddersfield this term, lost to Brighton, Crystal Palace and Cardiff, and drew against the likes of Newcastle, Fulham, and Bournemouth in games they were fancied to win.
It's not a great record is it, and you'd have to be a lot braver than me to back them at 2.54against another team towards the bottom of the table, especially when we know that Burnley can be extremely difficult to beat on their day.
The Clarets are in real danger of being relegated but if there is one team in the bottom six that you'd expect to roll up their sleeves and fight more than any other then it has to be Burnley.
Since the beginning of September last year Sean Dyche's men have played 14 games in front of their own fans and they've only once failed to get on the scoresheet, that coming against Chelsea towards the end of October. They've scored at least once in each of their subsequent 11 home games and if they can extend that excellent run then I believe they've got a cracking chance of upsetting Wolves.
Foxes can win an entertaining affair
Leicester 1.90 v Bournemouth 4.50; The Draw 4.00
Leicester are looking like a decent team again, I believe Brendan Rodgers will be an excellent appointment for the Foxes and they could enjoy a very good end - as well as playing a pivotal role - to the season.
Rodgers' men have a nice run of winnable fixtures coming up and they could easily go into the final weeks of the season in great form and full of confidence. Their final three games however are against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea, so they are sure to have a big say in the destination of the title and who finishes in the top four.
Leicester will want to build up some momentum and continue their good form by beating Bournemouth on Saturday, and although a price of 1.90 is very fair I quite like the 8/5 on the Sportsbook about the Foxes winning with at least three goals being scored in the game.
They've won three of their last four matches so arrive in good form, and all of their last six outings have witnessed at least three goals. They've both scored and conceded in each of those half a dozen games.
But the big factor for siding with at least three goals being scored in this match is Bournemouth as they are a side that, in games they believe they can win, will line-up with two strikers and always play with an attacking mentality. That increases the chances of Eddie Howe's men getting on the scoresheet, but it also means they are very likely to concede.
Prior to the Cherries' win at Huddersfield in their last away game Howe's men had lost 10 on the spin away from home so it's difficult to envisage them coming away from the King Power Stadium with all three points. Quite the opposite in fact, a home with with at least three goals in the game is the call.
United to concede in another victory
Man Utd 1.48 v Watford 8.40; The Draw 4.80
The race to finish in the top four is really hotting up. Tottenham have come back to the pack, Arsenal have found some form, and both United and Chelsea have had a few blips in recent games. We're set for a cracking finish to the season.
Manchester United are 2.34 to record a Top 4 Finish which doesn't look a bad price given their run in - they faced Huddersfield and Cardiff in their last two matches - as both of their 'difficult' matches (City and Chelsea) are at Old Trafford.
The slight concern is that United produced their worst performance under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in the FA Cup defeat to Wolves just before the international break, this coming after an away loss to Arsenal, and you have to wonder if the honeymoon period under their new boss - although it has been some honeymoon - has finally come to an end.
Having said that, the club have played a blinder by announcing that they've appointed Solskjaer permanently; a timely announcement that should give everyone a huge boost going into the final weeks of the season.
I think United will be fine against Watford, they have players back from injury and will field a very strong side for the visit of the Hornets, and on recent form they should have few worries taking all three points. But a bit like Bournemouth this Watford side generally plays with an attacking mentality and I fancy they'll get on the scoresheet at the Theatre of Dreams.
United have conceded in all of their last five matches; in fact they've conceded an average of exactly two goals per game in that period, while Watford have scored an average of exactly two goals per game in their last five matches.
Javier Gracia's men will arrive in Manchester in good form too having won five of their last seven matches, and my hunch is that they'll give a very good account of themselves before ultimately falling to defeat.
Back Burnley to Win @ 3.30 v Wolves (best bet)
Back Leicester Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 8/5 v Bournemouth (Sportsbook)
Back Man Utd Win & BTTS-Yes @ 2/1 v Watford (Sportsbook)