Serie A Betting: Milan are a no-brainer derby bet

It's Milan's Derby

Milan v Inter
Sunday, 19:30
Live on Premier 1 and Betfair Live Video

The Serie A weekend closes with the Milan derby, with the Rossoneri suddenly in with a chance of catching Napoli in second, and Inter fading, enveloped in crisis, and potentially in danger of finishing outside the top six.

There's much at stake, and while the theory goes that logic doesn't count for much in derbies, Milan have to be the bet of the week. They're in tremendous form, are unbeaten in the League since just before Christmas, and face a team who have big injury issues, and who will be without their best player. Milan at 2.52 is a no brainer.

I'm so impressed with the fact that Milan kept faith with Gennaro Gattuso, and with his response. The arrivals of Lucas Paqueta and Krzysztof Piatek have been massive factors, but so too has Gattuso's resilience and self-belief, and he'll be confident that his team can avenge their defeat in the reverse fixture, one that seems a lifetime ago.

Milan have now won their last five Serie A games, while Inter have picked up just 11 points from their eight matches in 2019, and the Nerazzurri are not playing well. The Mauro Icardi shambles has been a massive distraction, but even with him they were looking uninspired and disjointed, and they look there for the taking on Sunday night.

Inter have the better recent record in this fixture, unbeaten in the last five, but that's a statistic to be ignored. They've had minimal recovery time after losing in the Europa League against Eintracht Frankfurt, and with Milan fully rested and looking strong, I fully expect the 170th Serie A Milan derby to be one-sided. Milan are a massive price.

No Olimpico clean sheets

Lazio v Parma
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Premier 2 and Betfair Live Video

Lazio threw away a big first half advantage against an awful Fiorentina last weekend, and will be keen to make amends against a frustrating Parma team.

Parma are better away from home than at the Ennio Tardini, and if they could do anything other than play on the counter-attack, they'd be a lot higher up the table than they are.

One interesting fact to take from Parma's form is that they've scored in seven of their last eight away games. There's a reason for that too. They love teams coming onto them, are adept at lightning counters, and I think that they can trouble Lazio.

The home team are normally solid defensively, but the way that they approach games will suit Parma, and Roberto D'Aversa's team have every chance of scoring here.

Lazio's form has picked up since their mid-season slump, and they're certainly good enough to score in this one, but I don't trust their propensity to switch off, and given Parma's ability away from home, 2.00 looks too big for "yes" in the Both Teams to Score market.

Juraj Kucka has been in great form since joining in January, and likes playing in Rome, having scored five goals at the Olimpico previously. His presence in the midfield will be key, and if he doesn't score for Parma, I'm convinced that someone else will.

Unstoppable Toro

Torino v Bologna
Saturday, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

Bologna did the trick for us last week at home against Cagliari, but I'm surprised to see Torino trading at 2.02 to beat them this weekend.

Torino are up to sixth in the table after a string of impressive defensive displays, and with Andrea Belotti finally rediscovering some form, they look primed for another home winagainst a team that might have produced a win last week, but which has lost its last two away games.

Much will be made of the return of ex-Torino manager Sinisa Mihajlovic, but his team simply isn't good enough against the top sides in the division, and Torino currently count as one of those.

The Granata have now won five consecutive Serie A home games, without conceding a goal, and so it's baffling to see them priced at even money and above against a team which is in the relegation zone.

If Torino were mid-table and we had five games left in the season, then I might swerve this fixture, but they're in the middle of a live European campaign and are desperate for a win, so motivation won't be a problem.

It'll be low scoring, but I can see Torino keeping another clean sheet, and worsening the plight of their old boss.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Milan to beat Inter @ 2.52 

Back “Yes” in Both Teams to Score in Lazio v Parma @ 2.00 

Back Torino to beat Bologna @ 2.02