Aston Villa v Watford: Value lies with visitors after recent win

Watford beat Aston Villa convincingly last month and Dan Fitch likes their price to do so again...

Aston Villa 3.05 v Watford 2.48; The Draw 3.60
Tuesday 21 January, 20:30

Villa get second chance to move ahead of relegation rival

Aston Villa claimed a decent result at the weekend, but remain in the relegation zone of the Premier League.

With Watford having drawn their early kick-off on Saturday against Spurs, there was an opportunity for Villa to climb out of the bottom three with an away win at Brighton. Instead they went into the break a goal down and had to fight back to score a second-half equaliser through Jack Grealish, with the game eventually finishing 1-1.

In such circumstances it is easy to be rueful, but an away point at Brighton is objectively a good result. Villa's fate is far more dependent on their home form. They've lost three of their last four games at Villa Park in the Premier League (W1) and if they fail to move above of Watford on Tuesday night, there will be reason for genuine disappointment.

Marvelous Nakamba is a doubt for the game, after going off against Brighton with a knock. He could join Tom Heaton, Jed Steer, John McGinn, Keinan Davis and Wesley on the sidelines.

Missed spot kick must sting for Hornets

Like their opponents, Watford also had cause to have regrets after their weekend fixture.

The Hornets drew 0-0 with Tottenham. Again, that would ordinarily be seen as a perfectly acceptable result, but with Troy Deeney missing a second-half penalty for Watford, the chance was there to distance themselves from the relegation zone.

Nevertheless, Watford's form since Nigel Pearson took charge is very impressive. They are now unbeaten in seven (W4 D3) and that run includes a 3-0 win in the reverse fixture, which was Watford's last match of 2019.

Ismaila Sarr picked up a muscle injury against Tottenham and could miss the trip to Birmingham. Also injured are Kiko Femenia, Daryl Janmaat, Sebastian Prodl, Tom Cleverley, Will Hughes and Danny Welbeck.

Watford are tempting at fair odds

It's Watford that are the favourites at 2.50, with Aston Villa at 3.00 and the draw at 3.60.

That seems fair considering that Watford won the recent encounter between the teams so comfortably. Their price also seems a realistic one.

They are unbeaten in their last two away games, drawing at Sheffield United and beating Bournemouth 3-0. Watford's odds are big enough that you can back them relatively safely in the Draw No Bet market at 1.80. The draw itself should not be discounted at 3.60, with Villa finishing level in two of their last three games.

Avoid goals market despite Villa record

Both teams to score has landed in each of Aston Villa's last five games and is available at 1.67.

That might be a little too short against Watford though, as they have kept clean sheets in four of the eight matches they've played under Pearson. Watford's defensive record also makes the over/under 2.5 goals market a risk, with overs the favourite at 1.86, ahead of unders at 2.14.

Villa forwards have been finding the net

One market where you can find value is for Anytime Goalscorer, where there are two good options for Aston Villa.

Grealish scored Villa's equaliser against Brighton and has now found the net in five of their last ten Premier League games. With such a record, his odds of 3.80 to score look too big.

Another Villa player available at a larger price than perhaps he should be is Anwar El Ghazi. With Wesley injured, El Ghazi has being playing as a striker and has scored in two of his last four games. You can back the Dutch forward to score at 4.20.