Everton and Newcastle meet at Goodison Park on Tuesday evening and Paul Robinson is expecting a tight encounter with few goals...
Everton v Newcastle Tuesday January 21, 19:30
Europe back on the agenda at Goodison
The Toffees earned a decent point at West Ham on Saturday, and they return to Goodison Park on Tuesday evening, aiming to make it three straight victories in front of their own fans.
Things have largely been good under Carlo Ancelotti, but the one negative was a big one. The embarrassing defeat to a very youthful Liverpool team in the FA Cup could live long in the memory - especially if they don't make a serious push for a European place.
That kind of goal is far from beyond them, as they head into their 24th fixture, just five points behind Manchester United in fifth. Admittedly there are plenty of other teams in-between them, but if they can string three of four victories together, they will put themselves in a great position.
Richarlison missed the game at the London Stadium, but he should be able to return here, and he makes a big difference to the team. He scored the winner against Brighton, and he also netted against Manchester City on New Year's Day.
Breathing space restored at Newcastle
The Magpies had been having a bit of a wobble, as injuries began to take their toll over the festive period. A trio of defeats from Boxing Day to New Year's Day left them looking over their shoulder, but a draw at Wolves and a last-gasp win against Chelsea, has lifted the pressure.
Steve Bruce's side didn't see much of the ball against the Blues, but they hung on in there, and Isaac Hayden popped up with an injury time winner to send the crowd into a frenzy.
Newcastle are now into 12th place - level on points with Everton - and while they won't have European targets, a relegation battle is beginning to move into the rear-view mirror.
Allan Saint-Maximin returned to the team following injury on Saturday, and while he can be wasteful at times, his relationship with Almiron and Joelinton continues to flourish, and the trio are a handful for any Premier League defence.
Everton too short despite home advantage
The hosts are expected to take the points in this one, as they are trading at 1.56 on the Betfair Exchange. Since Marco Silva was sacked as manager, Everton are yet to lose at home in the Premier League - three wins and one defeat.
The latter two of those successes - both under Ancelotti - were both by a one-goal margin, but they didn't concede a goal in either, and they come into this fixture on the back of three home clean sheets.
The visitors are hardly prolific on the road - they average just shy of a goal-a-game away from St James'. That being said, they have still won three of their 11, which is the same amount as Man United, Arsenal and Everton - and one more than Spurs.
A fourth away success is available to back at 7.20 on the Exchange, and while that is tempting, it's hard to deny Everton's strength in front of their own fans.
The draw is trading at around the 4.40 mark, which again, while tempting, is tempered somewhat by the fact that Newcastle have only drawn one away game this term, and Everton have only drawn two at home.
The best tactic could be to oppose the home win, and lay Everton at 1.57. That means we have the draw and Newcastle on our side, and we would profit £16.67 for every tenner staked.
Unders the value
There is plenty of value to be had in the goal-markets for this fixture, as Under 2.5 is odds-against at 2.06, and that is far too big, in my opinion.
The Geordies are the third lowest-scorers in the division, and four of their last five on their travels have ended with the ball in the net on two occasions or fewer.
Since Silva left Everton, the Tofffees have played 10 times in all competitions, and six of them have seen Unders backers collect. That stat is even better if we just concentrate on Ancelotti's matches, as he has had four out of six go Under 2.5 - including both of his home games.
I am hugely surprised to see that Over 2.5 is the favourite at 1.92, and I am hugely confident on Under 2.5 goals landing on Tuesday evening.