Burnley v Leicester City: Clarets to suffer a spill

Leicester City's incredibly high standards have slipped recently, but Kevin Hatchard expects them to take maximum points against struggling Burnley...

Burnley v Leicester City
Sunday 19 January, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Burnley's edifice has crumbled

There are those that would have you believe that trying to win at Turf Moor is a task akin to taking the One Ring deep into Mordor, or smuggling out the plans for the Death Star. The truth, at least these days, is somewhat different. Burnley have lost four of their last five home matches in the league, and overall they have collected zero points from their last four Premier League outings.

If you look at their record against the so-called Big Six at Turf Moor, it's appalling, and this season alone they have lost at home to both Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Chelsea. Across those four games, they conceded 13 goals and scored just three. You have to go back to February for their last home win against an elite side, which was a 2-1 success against Tottenham.

In what's becoming a fascinating battle to avoid the drop, the threat of relegation is increasingly real for Sean Dyche's team. The Clarets are only three points above the bottom three, they have no momentum, and their remaining 16 fixtures include visits to Old Trafford, the Etihad and Anfield. Burnley are 4.80 to be relegated, and I think at the very least that's a trading opportunity (for more on trading on the Exchange, check out Betfair's How-To Guide).

To make matters worse, influential striker Ashley Barnes is out injured, having had surgery on a hernia. That means the attacking burden will fall upon the shoulders of Chris Wood, who has also been struggling with a knock. Jay Rodriguez has only netted three goals in the league this term, and there has been much debate about the use of Matej Vydra, who has been a peripheral figure.

Foxes won't worry about mini-slump

Leicester City have an 11-point cushion in the race for Champions League qualification, which is an extraordinary position for them to be in at this stage of the campaign. Yes, the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Tottenham have had their problems, but that shouldn't detract from an outstanding season from the Foxes.

Brendan Rodgers' team lost at home to Southampton last weekend, and they have only won two of their last six Premier League matches. However, that has to be kept in context - the Foxes faced Liverpool and Manchester City in that run, and the loss of excellent midfielder Wilfred Ndidi has also proven a blow. However, Leicester managed strong away wins at Newcastle and West Ham, and have won six of their last seven Premier League away matches.

Rodgers must decide whether to restore Youri Tielemans - who scored the winner in the reverse fixture against Burnley - to his starting eleven. Dennis Praet scored his first PL goal in defeat to Southampton, and he may be moved deeper at the expense of Hamza Choudhury.

Even at odds-on, Foxes are worth backing

Leicester City are the clear favourites here at 1.92, and I still think that's an attractive price. Burnley's form has collapsed, they have lost arguably their most effective striker to injury, and they clearly struggle against the more technically-gifted teams in the division. Despite the Foxes' little dip in results, their away form is extraordinarily good.

I'll back Leicester to win here at 1.92. Alternatively, to keep the draw onside, you could take advantage of Betfair's offer this weekend and lay Burnley risk free - place a £20 single on the Premier League on Saturday and get £20 towards your lay bet for this game (T&Cs apply - details at end of the article). And for advice on laying on the Exchange, check out Betfair's How-To Guide

Goals likely in Sunday showdown, but will Burnley score?

Leicester have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land in six of their last seven Premier League games, including the last five. They have kept just one clean sheet in that sequence.

The issue might be whether Burnley will actually score. They have drawn a blank in five of their last nine Premier League games. Both teams have found the net in just two of their last 12 top-flight matches.

On that basis, you could look to lay Yes in the Both Teams To Score market at 1.81.

Vardy impossible to ignore

By his standards, Jamie Vardy has hit a bit of a bumpy patch. He has scored in just one of his last six appearances, but he has still scored 17 Premier League goals, and he netted in the reverse fixture. At 1.87, backing him to score is a sensible play.

Kelechi Iheanacho has looked lively in recent games, and has actually found the net in six of his nine appearances in league and cup this term. He is trading at 2.38 to score.

If you think Leicester might win to nil, you could use the OddsOnThat section of the Sportsbook to back Leicester to win to nil, Jamie Vardy to score and there to be nine or more corners at 15/2.