The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 23
A 3/1 winner last time out saw Dan extend his lead at the top of the Battle but everyone remains in contention. Here's where the editors' tenners are headed this weekend...
Ings can only keep scoring
Dan Thomas Back Danny Ings to score v Wolves at2.22 Saturday, 15:00
Jake goes into more detail about Southampton's superb form below so I won't labour the point but the turnaround from the 9-0 home defeat to Leicester - culminating in last week's 2-1 win over the same opponents - has been nothing short of astonishing.
The main inspiration behind the Saints' good form has been Danny Ings, who is well in the running to replace Harry Kane in the England squad after scoring 14 goals this season (including 10 in the last 12).
And these have been important goals - no 'stat padding' from Ings. He has scored in 13 different Premier League games this season, more than any other player in the competition, and these goals have been worth 13 points to the Saints, another league high.
With Southampton facing a Wolves team showing slight signs of tiredness after a long season, Ings to score once again at bigger than 6/5 looks like a very solid selection.
Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£87.60
Goals at St Mary's
Jake Osgathorpe Back Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in Southampton vs Wolves @2.30 Saturday, 15:00
What a run Southampton are on. This upturn in form was coming, as according to expected goals the Saints had been performing like a top half team all season long, and Infogol suggests they will continue to climb the table.
They were utterly dominant at Leicester last weekend, fully deserving the three points after a fantastic display, and adding to their list of scalps following wins over Chelsea and Tottenham too. Racking up 13 points from 15 speaks for itself, and they moved up to fifth in our xG table, with a process that shows chances at both ends is highly likely here (1.67 xGF, 1.69 xGA per game).
Wolves sit a place above Southampton in our xG table (4th), and their process this season has been excellent (1.69 xGF, 1.32 xGA per game), and has in fact improved on last season. They were unfortunate to only draw with Newcastle last weekend, as performances have warranted more points of late.
Only Manchester City (57) have created more non-penalty big chances (35% or greater) than Wolves this season (37), so they will create good opportunities against this Southampton team.
I think this will be a really entertaining game between two teams trending in the right direction, and we at Infogol calculate that the Over 2.5 and BTTS Same Game Multi should be odds-on, so the 2.30 is a value play here.
Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£21.70
Underwhelming encounter expected in east London
Joe Dyer Back under 2.5 goals in West Ham v Everton @2.06 Saturday, 15:00
Two very middling attacks meet at the London Stadium on Saturday afternoon and I will take a chance on an underwhelming encounter with a back of under 2.5 goals.
David Moyes enjoyed the first game of his reign with a 4-0 thumping of Bournemouth but it's reverted to type since with a 2-0 defeat of Gillingham and then drawing a blank at Sheffield United (thanks in part to VAR).
Meanwhile, on Merseyside, Everton have become significantly tighter at the back under Carlo Ancelotti but that has not been accompanied by a rise in their goalscoring effectiveness.
So far this year they have restricted Man City to a 2-1 win at The Etihad, lost to a second string Liverpool 1-0 and then beat Brighton 1-0.
Put these two together and I would make under 2.5 goals the favourite against overs yet that isn't the case, so it's an easy choice to take the low total at a shade of odds-against.
Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£13.90
In-form Hornets to bag another win
Jasmine Baba Back Watford @3.35 to beat Tottenham Saturday, 12:30 Live on BT Sport
Jasmine is away.
Jasmine Baba 2019-20 P/L: -£7.00
Battle of new managers to end all square
Mike Norman Back The Draw @3.55 in West Ham v Everton Saturday, 15:00
I find it difficult to split West Ham and Everton on current form/ability, and as I always say, when that's they case and the Draw price is the outsider of the three options in the Match Odds, then it's worth backing.
Put another way, I couldn't have too much confidence in backing West Ham to win at their current odds, and the same applies to Everton. Both are in decent form for their new bosses and I don't think either David Moyes or Carlo Ancelotti will be too disappointed with a draw.
The Hammers have enjoyed a decent start under Moyes, winning two of their three games under his management and they really ought to have a draw beside their name also but for last week's disallowed goal against Sheffield United.
Since the departure of Marco Silva it's noticeable that Everton are a lot harder to beat. In fact from their last eight games played (some under the caretaker management of Duncan Ferguson) the Toffees have had three draws while the other five have been decided by just a single goal (three wins, two defeats).
From the last four meetings between these two clubs at the home of West Ham, two have finished all square while there's been one win for the Hammers and one for the Toffees, perhaps indicating again that this is fixture that isn't dominated by any side and that a draw is just as likely as any other outcome.