Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Lay Barca against in-form Getafe
After landing two winners last weekend, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select an 18/1 fourfold...
Augsburg to get back to winning ways
Augsburg vs Freiburg Saturday, 14:30 GMT
Augsburg come into this game on the back of a 5-0 thrashing last weekend, though the scoreline was harsh based on chances created (xG: FRA 2.03 - 1.02 AUG). Nonetheless they have now lost four of their last five league games.
They should be in the top half according to xG though, so performances haven't been bad this season, especially at home, where their process has been decent (1.66 xGF, 1.33 xGA per game).
Freiburg were fortunate to beat Hoffenheim last weekend, a game in which a draw would have been a fairer result (xG: FRE 2.16 - 2.07 HOF). That defeat was their fourth in seven.
They are fortunate to sit eighth in the table at this stage, ranking as the 13th best team in the Bundesliga, and their defensive process has been shocking all season (2.24 xGA per game), but even worst of late, as they have allowed an average of 2.72 xGA per game in their last six.
Augsburg can put this weak Freiburg backline to the sword here, and there is great value at backing the hosts at 2.08 (48%), as Infogol calculates they should be odds-on (56% - 1.79).
Getafe to frustrate Barca
Barcelona vs Getafe Saturday, 15:00 GMT
Barcelona rightly beat Real Betis last weekend, a game in which we saw the first glimpse of what they could be under Quique Setien after a fantastic second half performance in which they conceded just 0.02 xG.
They remain three points behind Real Madrid in the title race, and that is fair, as over the course of the season have ranked as only the fifth best team in La Liga according to underlying numbers.
There are positives around this Barca team heading into this game, but if you have peaked to see what I am tipping in this game, you will see that I am opposing the hosts, the main reason being Getafe.
Getafe are on a tear. They have been sensational for some time now, and have won seven of their last nine games, all of those wins without conceding a goal. Their run extends further to 11 wins in 16, in which they have picked up 35 points from a possible 48. Staggering numbers.
Jose Bordalas' side have been utterly dominant of late especially, and their display against Valencia last weekend in a 3-0 win was sensational (xG: GET 3.13 - 0.21 VAL), and their xG averages in the last four games read 2.11 xGF and 0.78 xGA.
They are one of La Liga's form team, and the way they play is dogged and hard-working in style which means they will make life extremely difficult for their hosts.
Getafe are well placed to come away from the Nou Camp with something, and that is the selection, as we think Barcelona are way too short at 1.45 (69%) on the Exchange - the model calculating they should be priced at 1.92 (52%). Lay the reigning champions at 1.46.
Another easy win for PSG
Amiens vs PSG Saturday, 16:30 GMT
Amiens face an unenvious task of facing a rampant PSG team this weekend, and they are already four points behind 17th placed Nimes - who currently occupy Ligue 1's relegation play-off place.
The Unicorns are on a horrendous run of form, as they come into this winless in 12 league games, losing eight, but on the whole this season they are unfortunate to be in the bottom three, sitting 17th in Infogol's xG table.
Their process is poor though, especially in attack, as they rank as the worst attacking team in the league according to xG (0.94 xGF per game), so it is unlikely that they will lay a glove on the champions here.
PSG remain other worldly compared to the rest of France's elite, posting ridiculous underlying numbers (3.07 xGF, 0.77 xGA per game), and no one will stop them winning another title.
Just to put their dominance into perspective, Thomas Tuchel's side boast an expected goal difference per game of 2.31, that is 2.13 more per game than second placed Marseille (0.18 xGD per game).
They will make light work of Amiens here, and even though they have a huge Champions League clash on the horizon, should win comfortably given the gulf in class between the sides.
Infogol actually calculates that backing PSG just to win this game represents value at 1.37, but at a bigger price I like Les Parisiens chances of covering the -1 handicap at 1.91.
Atalanta to strengthen grip on fourth place
Atalanta vs Roma Saturday, 19:45 GMT
Atalanta have put themselves in pole position to secure another season of Champions League football thanks to maintaining their level of process from last season, and they were excellent against Fiorentina last weekend (xG: FIO 0.38 - 1.70 ATA).
That win put them three points clear of their opponents in this game Roma, but they actually deserve to be higher based on performances, sitting right at the top of Infogol's xG table.
They have the best underlying process by some way (1.37 xGD per game), some 0.58 xGD per game better than the next best side, with by far and away the best attacking numbers (2.51 xGF per game). They are a formidable and exciting team.
Roma's charge for a top four finish has halted since the winter break, as they have picked up just four points from a possible 18 since the turn of the year.
The main issue since the break has been their defensive vulnerabilities, as they have allowed an average of 1.46 xGA per game in their last six.
They do create chances though, so we should be in for a high-scoring an entertaining game, but given Roma's defensive vulnerabilities, Atalanta look a good bet at 1.85 (54%) to get the win as Infogol makes them a 56% (1.79) shot.