Serie A Betting: Juventus and Inter won't win that easy, but Lazio let loose with SPAL

Dave Farrar predicts Fiorentina and Udinese will make life difficult for the top two, even if they'll ultimately lose, while Ciro Immobile can add to his Capocannoniere tally...

Fiorentina underrated in Turin

Juventus v Fiorentina
Sunday, 11:30
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
Fiorentina remain the only Serie A team to have prevented Juventus from scoring this season, and they head to Turin on Sunday in a good run of form. They were beaten - narrowly - by Inter in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday night, but acquitted themselves well, and it's clear that Beppe Iachini has them well organised and playing for each other. They're certainly a team to watch in the second half of the season.
Juventus were desperately disappointing in Naples last weekend, throwing away the chance of taking a six-point lead at the top of the table and looking toothless and incapable of breaking down a well organised Napoli.
Iachini will have taken some encouragement from that game, and La Viola will head for Turin with some confidence, having won in Naples three weeks ago and looked solid on their travels. Juve remain unconvincing and inconsistent, and there's a chance that Fiorentina could pull off a major upset at a big price.
Juve are masters at grinding out results though, and responding when they need to, and so I prefer to support Fiorentina on the Asian Handicap. We can back them with a two-goal start at 1.85, and that looks a price worth taking.

No clean sheets in Udine

Udinese v Inter
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
Inter were given something of a lifeline when, after drawing against Cagliari in the early game on Sunday, they watched Juventus lose in the evening and ended the weekend just three points behind the Champions.
Inter have drawn 5 of their last 7 Serie A games, and are fortunate to still be in the title race. They played more coherently against Fiorentina in the Cup on Wednesday, though, and the arrival of Christian Eriksen has given them a mid-season boost, with Ashley Young and Victor Moses also joining Antonio Conte.
Udinese have lost their last two in Serie A, and are hovering precariously above the relegation zone, 9 points clear of Genoa, but in danger of slipping.
Inter will more than likely win this game, but Udinese could trouble them, and even though Inter have kept four consecutive clean sheets against the Friulani, they might just struggle to do that here.
Inter have looked defensively frail all season, have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six games, and only twice in this campaign have they stopped the opposition from scoring away from home. Udinese have scored in their last four home games, and while they might struggle to stop Inter here, I think that "Yes" in the Both Teams to Score market is a decent bet here.

Lazio go wild with SPAL

Lazio v SPAL
Sunday, 14:00
Live on FreeSports and Betfair Live Video
Lazio's remarkable winning run may have been brought to an end by Roma last weekend, but there's no question that they are serious title challengers, and they face SPAL this weekend in a game that they should win to add more pressure onto the top two. If Lazio can stay in the title race until late March, then they have a very real chance of pulling off the upset.
SPAL have improved a little in recent weeks, the highlight being that remarkable win against Atalanta, and they have found a cutting edge too, scoring in their last two. However, Andrea Petagna has scored half of all their goals this season and he is suspended.
Lazio's firepower means that this is likely to be a high-scoring encounter, and I like SPAL's chances of scoring, which gives us two options. We can say "yes" to both teams to score at around the 2.20 mark, or look at the goals markets, and back Over 3.5 Goals at [2.36].
My preference is for the latter, as while SPAL will initially try to contain, they're likely to concede early and have to find a way back into the game. That could go one of two ways, but either way means more goals. Three of Lazio's last four home games have gone over this mark, and there's every chance that this one will follow suit, especially given that Ciro Immobile has an impressive goalscoring record against this opposition.

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