Watford v Everton: Ancelotti arrival has seen goals flow for striker
Dan Fitch likes the price for Dominic Calvert-Lewin to score when Everton visit Watford.
Watford 2.90 v Everton 2.72; The Draw 3.40 Saturday 1 February, 15:00
Hornets stung by late defeats
After a bright start under Nigel Pearson, the reality of Watford's situation has caught up with both him and his team.
Pearson's appointment saw Watford win three of his first five games in charge (D1 L1), with an away trip to Liverpool their only defeat in this period. Yet the last five games have brought only one win (D2 L2). It's a run that has seen Watford crash out of the FA Cup at the hands of Tranmere, taste defeat in a crucial relegation dogfight against Aston Villa and slip back into the relegation zone.
Confidence can be a fragile commodity for teams at the wrong end of the table and it would be no surprise if Watford's last two games has an effect on morale. In their loss at Aston Villa they lost a lead and then conceded the winner in the last minute. This was followed by a defeat to Tranmere in an FA Cup replay, in which Watford let in a crucial goal in extra time to lose 2-1.
Those games saw Watford pick up some injuries, with Nathaniel Chalobah suffering up a hip problem against Aston Villa and Joao Pedro going off with a knock at Tranmere. Those two could join the injured Kiko Femenia, Darryl Janmaat, Sebastian Prodl, Tom Cleverley, Will Hughes, Ismaila Sarr and Danny Welbeck
Everton a long way from Ancelotti level
After winning his first two games at charge at Everton, Carlo Ancelotti is another new manager that has witnessed his team's recovery slow down.
Opening wins against Burnley and Newcastle were followed by understandable away defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool in the FA Cup. Since then they have beaten Brighton, but then suffered disappointing draws with struggling West Ham and Newcastle, in which they let a two goal lead slip at home, with both of the visitors' goals coming in injury time.
Such a result highlights the hard work to be done if Ancelotti is to get Everton to the sort of level at which he's spent the vast majority of his managerial career. The team's elimination from the FA Cup has at least afforded him a lengthy spell to work with his players on the training ground, without a fixture in ten days.
Everton have long-term injuries in Jean-Philippe Gbamin and Andre Gomes. Gylfi Sigurdsson, Alex Iwobi and Richarlison are all doubts and face fitness tests.
Avoid backing a win unless playing cautiously
Everton are the narrow favourites at 2.72, with Watford at 2.90 and the draw at 3.40.
It's a tough match to predict. with the game likely to be tight, the draw represents the best value. If you fancy either side to win, go for the safety of the Draw No Bet market, where you will find Everton at 1.92 and Watford at 2.04.
Goals now flow in Watford games
Both teams to score seems a more reliable bet at a decent price of 1.83. It's landed in four of Everton's last five Premier League games.
Four of Watford's five most recent Premier League outings have seen over 2.5 goals pay out, which can be backed at 2.10.
Price for striker is not reflective of current form
It can take time for goalscorer markets to react to a change in form for a previously unreliable player and that certainly seems to be the case with Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Prior to Ancelotti's arrival, Calvert-Lewin's goalscoring record was not particularly impressive, but he's found the net five times in the six Premier League games that have come since Everton changed manager. The England U21 international looks too big at 3.00 to score again.