Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Lay Real Madrid

After landing all four winners in a 16/1 fourfold last weekend, Infogol's Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe, using expected goals (xG) data to select a 14/1 fourfold...

Bologna to win again

Bologna vs Brescia
Saturday, 14:00GMT
Bologna got back to winning ways last weekend with a very impressive victory over struggling SPAL, and they face another struggling team here.
That win moved them up to 11th, but they are unfortunate not to be in the top half after 21 games, as they possess a very impressive process (1.71 xGF, 1.44 xGA per game).
Brescia sit rock bottom of Serie A after a 1-0 defeat against AC Milan, their fourth defeat in six league games.
Their main issue this season has been defensively, as the bottom side have allowed an average of 1.91 xGA per game, the second worst defence in the league.
I expect them to struggle greatly to contain this attack-minded Bologna side, and the Infogol model calculates a 69% (1.45) chance of a home win, so the 1.72 (58%) on offer represents good value.

Atleti to avoid defeat

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Saturday, 15:00 GMT
The small matter of the Madrid derby, as table toppers Real Madrid take on an out-of-form Atletico Madrid.
Real Madrid have won their last three league games after an unconvincing 1-0 win at Real Valladolid last weekend, a game in which they created very little (xG: RVA 0.25 - 0.76 RMA).
Over the course of the season, Real sit third in our xG table, but boast the best process (2.23 xGF, 1.10 xGA per game), being very tight at the back, conceding a league low 13 times in 21 matches.
They obviously have plenty of attacking talent at their disposal, but as Andy Brassel said on this weeks Football...Only Bettor, Zinedine Zidane has never got the better of Diego Simeone in a domestic match at the Bernabeu.
Atletico were beaten by Eibar a few weeks ago, and followed that up with a disappointing 0-0 draw against Leganes last weekend, though they won the xG battle on both occasions.
Surprisingly, Atleti sit top of Infogol's xG table after 21 games, and boast the second best process in the league (1.88 xGF, 0.89 xGA per game), with their main issue being taking their chances.
Simeone's side have scored just 22 times this season, though based on the chances created, we would have expected them to score closer to 40 (39.6 xGF), though don't expect an all-out-attack approach here.
Real are odds-on favourites to get the win here, but Infogol is expecting a tight game with few goals, so the draw percentage increases with that assumption, meaning we calculate that the hosts have a 48% RMA (2.08) chance of winning, so the recommendation is to lay Real Madrid at 1.86 (54%).

PSG vs Montpellier
Saturday, 16:30 GMT
Over in France, PSG are runaway leaders yet again, with their 2-0 win over Lille last time out moving them 10 points clear, and that was another dominating performance (xG: LIL 0.37 - 2.31 PSG).
Les Parisiens are posting some outrageous underlying numbers in Ligue 1 this season, averaging a whopping 3.05 xGF per game - some 1.27 per game more than next best Monaco - while allowing only 0.70 xGA per game.
They are simply in another league to the rest of France, and will win another league title this season, though Monaco did cause them some problems a few weeks ago, creating more than 1 xG in both of their matches.
Montpellier are in decent form coming into this game having won their last three league games, as they moved into the top four in France after a slow start.
According to expected goals, they actually rank as the second-best team in the league this season, so this game is a battle between the league's best, according to Infogol's xG table.
They are a decent defensive unit (1.03 xGA per game), and do possess some attacking talent (1.23 xGF per game), and the Infogol model calculates a 50% (2.00) chance of both teams scoring, so at 2.40 (42%) on the Exchange, that is the obvious value play.

Goals between two high-flyers

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
It's first against third in Germany this weekend, as RB Leipzig host Borussia Mönchengladbach at the Red Bull Arena.
RB Leipzig suffered defeat last weekend at Frankfurt, though they were unfortunate to lose according to expected goals, and their lead at the top is now down to just one point.
That game was the first time this season that RBL drew a blank in the league, and we shouldn't expect too many more of those games given their attacking process, which is excellent (2.50 xGF per game).
Defensively they are far from solid (1.30 xGA per game), and have kept only four clean sheets this season, so expect them to score a couple but also concede.
Borussia Mönchengladbach bounced back well from a 2-0 defeat to Schalke just after the winter break, beating Mainz 3-1 which was a very fair result according to expected goals (xG: 3.03 - 1.05 MAI).
They are another team that are sensational to watch going forward, with BMG averaging 2.16 xGF per game this season, and they rightly sit third in the table.
Like Leipzig, they also concede chances and goals (1.43 xGA per game), so we are expecting a high-scoring game here, calculating a 50% (2.00) chance of over 3.5 goals, so the 2.16 (46%) on the Exchange is the value play.

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