Valencia v Atalanta: Hard to see in-form visitors losing

Valencia lost the first-leg of their Champions League clash with Atalanta 4-1 and Dan Fitch has his money on the Italians winning again.

Valencia 2.82 v Atalanta 2.52; The Draw 3.95
Tuesday 10 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3

Los Ches can't even call upon fans for inspiration

Valencia have a huge task ahead of them when they host Atalanta in the Champions League on Tuesday.

In the first-leg of their last-16 clash, the Italians won 4-1. That result leaves Valencia needing either a 3-0 win or a victory by a margin of four goals, to overturn the current deficit.

Based on current form, the chances of such an occurrence seem remote. Valencia have only won one of their last seven matches (D2 L4). During that run they have gone out of the Copa del Rey and are currently seventh in La Liga, after their 1-1 draw with Alaves at the weekend. They are only four points from fourth though and perhaps Valencia can get their season back on track when they are without the distraction of cup competitions.

As if Valencia's task on Tuesday wasn't already difficult enough, the game will be played behind closed doors with no fans in attendance, in response to the threat of the spread of the Coronavirus, with Atalanta hailing from Bergamo, where the illness is widespread. Valencia also have a number of injuries, with Cristiano Piccini, Eliaquim Mangala, Ezequiel Garay, Manu Vallejo and Maxi Gomez all out.

Atalanta in seventh heaven

If the odds are stacked against Valencia, everything seems to be going Atalanta's way.

Currently fourth in Serie A and set to return to the Champions League next season, Atalanta have had nine days to prepare for this fixture. Their last game came at the start of March, away at Lecce, where they ran out as 7-2 winners.

If that sounds like something of a freak result, then think again. It was the third time that Atalanta have scored seven goals this season, having won 7-1 against Udinese at home in October and 7-0 at Torino in January. No team in Italy have scored more than Atalanta's total of 70 Serie A goals this season.

Gian Piero Gasperini only has two injuries to deal with ahead of the trip to Valencia. The centre-backs Berat Djimsiti and Rafael Toloi are both out.

Value lies with visitors

Atalanta are the favourites at 2.52, with Valencia at 2.82 and the draw at 3.95.

The visitors are unbeaten in six (W5 D1). When you consider Valencia's poor form and the amount of rest that Atalanta have had before this fixture, it's clear where the value lies. Atalanta are 1.83 in the Draw No Bet market and that doesn't look like a wager that will lose you money.

Atalanta guarantee goals

Goals seem more or less guaranteed when Atalanta are involved, but the markets reflect this fact.

Neither both teams to score at 1.45 or over 2.5 goals at 1.48 are worth backing. Over 3.5 goals is where it starts to get interesting at 2.22, which has paid out in four of Atalanta's last six games.

The last two, have both seen over 4.5 goals which is available at 4.00. It could worth taking a punt on one of these options, as Valencia have no choice but to attack, if they are to stand a chance of winning this tie.