Tobias Gourlay's hanging around Serie A for another day, hoping Sassuolo can do what they often do
Sassuolo v Genoa Wednesday 18:30
In Italy last night, Atalanta came from behind to beat Parma 2-1, but leave us a goal short of our target. With another eight Serie A matches, we're looking to make amends in Sassuolo.
Last season, Genoa's trip to Sassuolo brought a 5-3 win for the hosts. Heading into tonight's encounter, the headline facts are these: 28/36 of Sassuolo's league games have delivered Over 2.5 Goals; and so have 28/36 of Genoa's.
On those trends alone, Over 2.5 Goals should be 1.29 for tonight's game. At Mapei Stadium, a remarkable 16/17 of Sassuolo's Serie A matches have gone that way, with just over half (9/17) reaching Over 3.5 Goals.
Davide Nicola's visitors have not been slacking either. Fifteen of their 18 previous road trips have produced Over 2.5 Goals, with exactly 50% getting to Over 3.5 Goals. With all of this in mind - and with both teams in good scoring and conceding form - an odds-against price about Over 3.0 in the Goal Lines market is too good to ignore. If the game produces at least four goals, the bet's a winner, but you also get the insurance policy of your stake returned if it only gets to three goals.