Brighton v Burnley: Clarets can keep it tight and avoid defeat

Dan Fitch thinks that Brighton are too short against fellow Premier League strugglers Burnley and is backing the visitors to avoid a loss in a low scoring game...

Brighton 1.94 v Burnley 4.5; The Draw 3.8
Friday 6 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Box Office

Seagulls yet to start flying

It's a little too early to be talking about games being a 'six-pointer' in the relegation fight, but it's certainly true that both the hosts Brighton and their opponents Burnley, desperately need a win.

Brighton have not won since beating Newcastle 3-0 at St James' Park in their second game of the season. They have played five games since then and only claimed two points (D2 L3).

Last weekend they lost 2-1 at Tottenham and the game played out in a similar manner as Brighton's other fixtures against last season's top six teams, such as Chelsea and Manchester United. Brighton's performance was impressive, they could have easily taken a point, but ultimately they lost. Perhaps more worrying though was their result in the previous week, when they could only draw 1-1 at home at West Brom. That's the type of game they simply must win if they are to avoid a very hard season.

Graham Potter dropped Neal Maupay from his squad to face Spurs, following a reported dressing room row, but as one of Bright's best performers, the French striker is surely needed back in the team. Lewis Dunk remains suspended and will join the injured Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Jose Heriberto Izquierdo and Andone Florin on the sidelines. Wing-backs Tariq Lamptey and Sonny March are both doubts, having gone off injured against Tottenham.

Dyche should have faith

Brighton have at least won a game. Burnley are still waiting for their first victory after six outings (D1 L5).

They have faced tough opponents in the form of Spurs and Chelsea in their last two games and earlier this season played Manchester City, losing all three games. Yet they also lost at home to Southampton, away at Newcastle and could only draw at West Brom. In past seasons we'd expect Burnley to take far more than a single point from these type of games.

Jeff Hendrick was the only regular starter to leave over the summer, but with the only senior player that Burnley brought in being Dale Stephens, neither did they strengthen the squad. The injured centre-back Ben Mee and midfielder Jack Cork have been a big loss, yet ultimately Sean Dyche has mainly the same group of players that have served him well over the past couple of seasons, so he should be confident of reversing Burnley's form in time.

Mee and Cork remain out. They will join Erik Pieters and Johann Berg Gudmundsson on the sidelines, while Phil Bardsley waits for clearance to play after his positive Covid-19 test.

Value lies with visitors

Brighton are the 1.94 favourites, with the draw at 3.8 and Burnley at 4.5.

It's the Seagulls that have been more competitive this season, claiming five points to Burnley's one, but they have also played an extra game. On the evidence of Brighton's 1-1 home draw with West Brom, they are too short here and the odds between the teams should be closer.

That suggests that the value could be with Burnley. Their odds are big enough that you can back Burnley to avoid defeat at 2.0 in the Double Chance market, while the draw also holds some appeal at 3.8.

Low scoring match ahead

Brighton's games are normally entertaining affairs in which both teams score, but this could be an exception. Burnley have only scored one goal so far this season and will be looking to keep things tight.

Under 2.5 goals is 1.88. The half-time score of 0-0 is also worth considering at 2.9, with that bet having landed in two of Burnley's last three matches.

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