Newcastle v Everton: Missing players to cost Toffees

Newcastle v Everton: Missing players to cost Toffees

Everton fell to their first defeat of the season last weekend and Paul Robinson expects it to be back to back losses at St James' Park.

Newcastle v Everton
Sunday 1 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Jekyll and Hyde for Newcastle this season

A late Jacob Murphy goal rescued a point in what was a pretty drab game at Molineux last Sunday, but that won't bother Steve Bruce, as it was a result that put their 4-1 home defeat to Manchester United behind them.

The Magpies head into the weekend in 14th place, with a symmetrical record of two wins, two draws and two defeats from their six outings to date. Their goal difference is minus two, but they haven't been helped by some key injuries - especially in defence.

On that note, Jamaal Lascelles, appears to be a major doubt ahead of this game, so it will probably be three at the back for Bruce - Schar, Fernandez and Clark, being the three.

Further up the field, Dwight Gayle, Matt Ritchie and Jonjo Shelvey remain sidelined, but there have been no new injury concerns reported by the manager.

Missing players a problem for Ancelotti

Excuse the pun, but the Toffees came unstuck at Southampton last weekend, as their unbeaten start came to an end in decisive fashion - losing 2-0 at St Mary's.

Lucas Digne saw red on the South Coast, so he now joins Richarlison on the suspended list, and those two have been key players for Carlo Ancelotti this season.

Perhaps even worse for the manager though is the absence of James Rodriguez. The Colombian has been a revelation since his move to England and his creativity will be sorely missed.

Points to stay on Tyneside

If this game was being played this time last week, the visitors would be shorter than the 2.16 that is currently on offer on the Betfair Exchange. A home win is 3.85, and the draw is 3.6.

Both of Newcastle's defeats have come at St James' Park this year, but they did beat Burnley 3-1 in-between those losses.

Everton's record on the road is played three, won two and lost one, and it's worth noting that their two victories were by a single goal margin.

Given the diminished attacking threat of the Toffees, I am ruling out backing them at just above evens. That leaves the draw and a Magpies win, and I am going with the latter.

I really like the front three of Almiron, Wilson and Saint-Maximin, and if they have one of their better matches as a trio, they will definitely trouble this Everton defence - a defence which are conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game.

Expect at least three goals

It's a bit of a pick-em when it comes to Over or Under 2.5 Goals. At time of writing, the Over is marginally shading it at 1.94, with the Under at 2.02.

Newcastle's matches are averaging exactly three goals this season, with 50% of them going Over and the half going Under. Of note, all three of the Over games came on this ground.

Everton have a higher average at 3.83 goals per game, and two thirds of their outings have seen Over 2.5 backers collect. Interestingly, two of their three on the road have ended with two goals or fewer.

On balance, I think that Over 2.5 is more likely than not, so I think that there is value in backing it at 1.94.

Same Game Multi

Callum Wilson has scored four Premier League goals since his move from Bournemouth and you can back him to score again, a Newcastle win and Over 2.5 goals in a Same Game Multi at odds of 8.04 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

Key Opta Stat

Everton have only drawn one Premier League away game during Carlo Ancelotti's reign, winning six and losing six, with the stalemate coming against West Ham in January.