Football Tips: Best bets from the Football...Only Bettor team
On this week's Football...Only Bettor Kevin Hatchard, Mark O'Haire and Jake Osgathorpe discuss Euro 2020 odds, this weekend's Premier League and European leagues matches, and the Champions League...
Euro 2020 odds - England are too short
Jake: "The market doesn't seem right with England 6.4 as favourites."
Mark: "Right now, England don't look capable of winning it. Going forward they have a frightening collection of players - Jadon Sancho, Marcus Rashford, Jack Grealish - but the price is probably artificially short, as there's always patriotic support for England. Gareth Southgate's system isn't getting the best out of the team and picking Jordan Pickford instead of viable alternatives could be their downfall."
Kevin: "I really like Belgium 6.6 but France 7.2 surely deserve to be favourites."
Jake: "I'm backing France. Spain 8.6 dismantled Germany in midweek, a really good, dominant performance. For now, though, France and Belgium are my 1-2.
Mark: As an outsider I fancy Denmark at 80.0 as a back to trade. If they get out of the group that price will halve and you can back out then."
Kevin: "Defending champions Portugal 14.5 have a super coach and a strong squad. They're definitely worth a look."
Premier League - weekend bets
Mark: "City's price of 1.87 reflects their potential, how good they can be, based on what we've seen in recent years. But we can attack that price. Spurs have produced some really good performances. How will Jose Mourinho approach this? I think he might be pragmatic and play on the counter-attack. The bet is Spurs double chance and under 4.5 goals at around even odds."
Jake: "City have issues in defence and are not creating enough chances - the Infogol stats show this. This is not a good time for them to play Spurs. It's difficult for me to see City dominating. I would be happy to lay City. Or I would take the draw at 4.2. It's going to be a fascinating game but I don't think it will be high-scoring and I think Spurs will get a result."
Jake: "If United were to lose this would be a big game for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. West Brom are setting a record for being the worst Premier League teams for expected goals. United to win to nil at 2.1 looks a decent price."
Mark: "The issue for siding with either team is the tactical expectation of how this match might be played out. Leeds were strong defensively until the 3-0 defeat to Aston Villa. Arsenal are only averaging around nine shots per game this season. They are too short here. I don't think it will be goal-heavy. Leeds double chance and under 4.5 goals."
Jake: "I like the unders in this match because of the defensive way Arsenal play. That will keep the score-line low. I'd be tempted by under 2.5 goals at 2.26."
Mark: The market has been fascinating since the Liverpool absentees were announced. In Mo Salah, Trent Alexander-Arnold and others they're missing influential players in both boxes. But it's almost two years since Liverpool were even money - as they are for this - at home against anyone other than Man City. There's been a massive overreaction and Leicester are overrated. They're missing players too. Even money for Liverpool is a fantastic bet.
Kevin: "Sadio Mane to score at 5/4 and Jamie Vardy to score at 6/5 are good bets."
Jake: "Brendan Rodgers' record against Jurgen Klopp last season was horrendous. I'd take Liverpool at even money."
La Liga
Mark: "This is a fascinating tussle. Barca have a good record against Atletico but Ronald Koeman is under pressure already. They have regressed in the past year. I'm surprised to see them as favourites. I think it could be low-scoring. I fancy Atletico to be competitive. I'm backing Atletico double chance and under 2.5 goals at 2.49."
Jake: "We need to get Atletico onside. Barca have really struggled on the road and their expected goals away from home is poor. Ansu Fati, their best player this season, will miss this match. There's dysfunction in the frontline. Madrid are resolute in defence. Atletico double chance and under 3.5 goals at 1.96."
Mark: "Can Elche hold out against Levante's attack? Elche create very few chances, although their conversion rate is efficient. Back Levante and under 4.5 goals at 1.8."
Jake: "I think 1.95 for a Sociedad win is generous for me so I'm backing the league leaders to take three points."
Bundesliga
Arminia Bielefeld v Bayer Leverkusen
Kevin: "Leverkusen -1 @ 1.88 might be the most sensible play of the weekend in Germany. Leverkusen should shred their limited opponents."
Kevin: "Koln are terrible and Union have been impressive so far. I'm backing over 2.5 goals at evens."
Ligue 1
Mark : "Lorient are in the bottom four but that doesn't tell the full story - they're in the top half for xG. You can get Lorient +1 at 1.91. They're better than the table suggests."
Jake: I'm all in on a Lyon win. People don't realise how good they been so far, almost equal to PSG in xg. Lyon are a big price against Angers. Lyon to win and both teams to score also makes sense.
Champions League - Tuesday and Wednesday bets
Jake: "Sevilla's 1.78 quality will shine again. Krasnodar have to try to win and Sevilla can pick them off. This is a good chance for them to seal their qualification from the group."
Mark: "Romelu Lukaku will be back for Inter and there are possible absentees in defence for Madrid. The Spanish side look vulnerable at the back. Goals has to be the play at over 2.5 goals and both teams to score."
Borussia Monchengladbach v Shakhtar Donetsk
Jake: "I've been really impressive by Monchengladbach so far. They're in the driving seat in the Group and dismantled the Ukrainians away from home. I can see this being a comfortable home win. Monchengladbach to win and over 2.5 goals at 1.95 tickles my fancy."
Mark: "Bayern to win and both teams to score. The defending champions are ruthless and Salzburg like to attack too."
POD TREBLE: Man Utd to beat WBA, Both teams to score in Aston Villa v Brighton, Under 2.5 goals in Wolves v Soton
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