Valladolid climbed above Levante with a not entirely deserved win at Granada last weekend, but a third straight win will not be easy against opponents who haven't been allowing their opponents too many chances. Paco López's visitors have tightened up at the back of late, averaging just 0.78 xGA across their last four games, and better luck in front of goal can see them follow four draws with a long-awaited win.
The sight of two newly promoted sides in the top half of the table after 10 games is a surprising one, and Elche can ensure they stay there with three points against last season's Segunda División champions. Infogol's model anticipates a close contest, but the hosts have solidified of late while Álvaro Cervera's Submarino Amarillo have done anything but, coming unstuck in their last two games after an impressive start.
A goalless draw against Lokomotiv Moscow means Atlético Madrid have gone more than 300 minutes in all competitions without conceding a goal, and Valencia face a battle to prevent them prolonging that record. Javi Gracia's hosts gave Alavés a two-goal headstart last week before coming back to claim a draw, and a similarly slow start against Atléti will be harder to return from.
Sevilla's Champions League win at Krasnodar on Tuesday night has given them some breathing room to focus their attention on the league, with European progress confirmed. This is bad news for Huesca, who would have hoped to come up against a weakened XI as they chase a win to add to their seven league draws. Infogol makes the visitors 49% favourites, and we could well see them pick up their first away league clean sheet of the season.
After earning a crucial Champions League win away to 10-man Inter Milan, Real Madrid can get their domestic season back on track. They face an Alavés side currently four games unbeaten, having ridden their luck somewhat against Barcelona in particular, and Infogol has Zinedine Zidane's side strong favourites to clinch what would be a fourth straight league victory over the side from the Basque Country.
The pressure continues to build on Ronald Koeman amid last week's defeat at Atlético Madrid, but the Barcelona boss led his team to a big win in Europe and can follow it up with three points against Osasuna. The visitors are level on points with Barça, but Koeman's side have been better than their position indicates and Infogol's model backs them to squeak a victory which could help them climb the table.
Athletic's last six games have gone loss-win-loss-win-loss-win, with none of the results representing a huge departure from the xG outcome, and Infogol's model backs their consistent inconsistency to continue at the Coliseum. Hosts Getafe are winless in four, but are capable of blunting their opponents to stop the rot, with just a 36% chance of more than 2.5 goals in the game.
Eduardo Coudet was handed a thankless task in his first game as Celta Vigo manager, but his team showed enough positives in defeat at Sevilla to justify their status as narrow favourites with Infogol as they welcome Granada to Balaídos. Granada won this game last season, but it's hard to read too much into a game which was 11 men against nine for more than an hour, and Celta have been better this season than their league position suggests.
Real Sociedad came through a potentially tricky test to dominate at Cádiz last weekend, never looking in real danger of surrendering the second-half lead handed to them by Alexander Isak, and they face another tough challenge at home to third-place Villarreal. The visitors have won their last two on the road, averaging 2.55 xGF in the process, but the league leaders are good value for their place at the summit and Infogol gives them a 41% chance of victory.
Successive away games have seen Real Betis ship nine goals after struggling to contain both Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao, but Manuel Pellegrini's side have been far more defensively competent at home. Opponents Eibar come into the game averaging less than a goal a game in real and expected terms, and this could prove their undoing.