Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW16

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions as the Serie A leaders welcome the reigning champions...

Cagliari to put back-to-back defeats behind them

Cagliari v Benevento
Wednesday, 11:30
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Cagliari were out of sorts defensively on Sunday, with four away goals not flattering opponents Napoli in the slightest, and manager Eusebio Di Francesco will be desperate for a reaction. Benevento are the next visitors to Sardegna Arena, and the hosts are favourites with Infogol's model to get the better of opponents who haven't quite been as consistent as their 10th place suggests.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.50

Atalanta to hand Parma a fourth straight defeat

Atalanta v Parma
Wednesday, 14:00
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Atalanta looked back to something approaching their free-flowing best at the weekend, creating plenty and putting five goals past Sassuolo. A similar performance should be more than enough against a Parma side whose home loss to Torino left them in serious trouble, with the Gialloblu averaging more than 2 xGA per game away from home.

Back the 3-1 @ 10.50

Bologna to go one better after four straight draws

Bologna v Udinese
Wednesday, 14:00
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Back-to-back defeats have seen Udinese stay just behind Bologna in the bottom half, and Infogol expects them to stay there with a defeat at Renato Dall'Ara. The hosts have solidified since a mid-December hammering by Roma, and will hope to improve on last season's last-gasp draw against Wednesday's opponents despite Udinese still boasting the league's best xGA recorc.

Back the 2-0 @ 16.50

Roma to keep the top two sweating

Crotone v Roma
Wednesday, 14:00
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While Crotone were better than the scoreline suggests at the San Siro, a 6-2 defeat at Inter could well prompt some soul-searching. They won't have too long to react, though, and the visit of Roma to Ezio Scida could well produce another comprehensive loss for the relegation-threatened side if they're not careful. Infogol's model gives the visitors a 63% chance of victory, but the hosts could escape the bottom three with a win.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.80

Inconsistent Lazio to find a much-needed victory

Lazio v Fiorentina
Wednesday, 14:00
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2021 didn't get off to the best of starts for Lazio, with more dropped points continuing to harm their chances of returning to the Champions League, but a first home game of the new year offers a chance to get back to winning ways. Visitors Fiorentina have just one away win this term, though it came in their last road game at Juventus, and the hosts will want to take advantage of a Viola defence averaging 1.84 xGA away from Artemio Franchi.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.80


Inter to find a way past Sampdoria's back-line

Sampdoria v Inter Milan
Wednesday, 14:00
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Sampdoria have averaged 1.91 xGA across their last six games, so the visit of Inter to Luigi Ferraris will have felt daunting even before the Nerazzurri scored six on Sunday. Inter won the corresponding fixture 3-1 last term, with Alexis Sánchez scoring his first goal for the club, and Infogol gives Antonio Conte's men a 59% chance of repeating the trick.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.40

Sassuolo to rebound from Atalanta setback

Sassuolo v Genoa
Wednesday, 14:00
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Despite losing 5-1 at Atalanta, Sassuolo remain in the top six and will be confident of staying there as they welcome lowly Genoa for their first home game of the new calendar year. The visitors earned a good point against Lazio as they continue their new manager bounce under Davide Ballardini, but Infogol's model makes Roberto De Zerbi's hosts the favourites to take all three points.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.00

Torino to continue march away from danger

Torino v Verona
Wednesday, 14:00
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Things are suddenly looking rosier for Torino, and while the 3-0 scoreline at Parma may have flattered them, the hard-earned victory made it three games without defeat and lifted Marco Giampaolo's men out of the bottom three. Greater defensive solidity can help them turn three into four, with Infogol backing them to pip a Verona side whose win at Spezia last time out was their first in four games.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.00

Napoli to hand Spezia a fourth straight reverse

Napoli v Spezia
Wednesday, 17:00
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Napoli's 5.37 xGF in their win at Cagliari is the kind of number which jumps out at you, and Rino Gattuso's men will consider themselves capable of producing a similarly impressive return at home to a Spezia side which dropped into the bottom three with a third straight loss over the weekend. With Infogol making the home side 77% favourites, a heavy defeat could be on the cards for the strugglers.

Back the 3-0 @ 8.20

Milan's unbeaten start to end against champions

AC Milan v Juventus
Wednesday 19:45
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You have to go back nearly 30 games to find Milan's last league defeat, and last season's summer surge included a comeback from 2-0 down to beat Juventus at the San Siro. A repeat on Wednesday night would see the gap to last season's champions extended to a huge 13 points, but Infogol makes Juve slight favourites to hand Stefano Pioli's team a first defeat of 2020/21 and keep their narrow hopes of a title defence alive.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.40

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