Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW17

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A as second and third face off...

Atalanta to make temporary top four return

Benevento v Atalanta
Saturday, 14:00
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The top half of Serie A is beginning to get congested, which means the likes of Atalanta can scarcely afford to drop points. Gian Piero Gasperini's team won't have it all their own way against a Benevento side coming off a win at Cagliari, but Infogol's model makes the visitors favourites to claim the win they need to go into the top four - at least until the teams above them kick off.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.20

Ballardini to earn first home win back at Genoa

Genoa v Bologna
Saturday, 17:00
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After a mixed start to his latest spell at Genoa, Davide Ballardini will be keen to inspire his charges to a home win against tough opponents in Bologna. Siniša Mihajlović's visitors have drawn their last five, having finished all square in none of their first 11, and the hosts are slight favourites to hand their opponents a fifth away defeat of the season.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.50

Milan to make immediate recovery

AC Milan v Torino
Saturday, 19:45
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Milan's unbeaten record finally came to an end on Wednesday, at the hands of a Federico Chiesa-inspired Juventus, but Stefano Pioli's team have a chance to make amends against Juve's neighbours Torino. The away side is in the midst of a four-game unbeaten run - enough to keep them just about out of the bottom three - but Infogol makes the Rossoneri strong favourites to keep Il Toro in trouble.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.40

Roma to stay in title race by beating Inter

Roma v Inter Milan
Sunday, 11:30
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Arguably the most intriguing game of the weekend takes place at the Olimpico, where three points would see Roma draw level on points with Inter and stay in touch with league leaders Milan. Romelu Lukaku's late penalty ensured the spoils were shared last season, but Infogol's model makes Paulo Fonseca's side narrow favourites to earn a statement win on Sunday lunchtime.

Back the 2-1 @ 11.00

Liverani exit won't help Parma stop the rot

Parma v Lazio
Sunday, 14:00
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Fabio Liverani became the latest Series A boss to lose his job, making way with Parma in the bottom three. Roberto D'Aversa is now back in the dugout, but Infogol expects the returning boss to kick off with a defeat at home to a Lazio side looking to climb the table after standing firm in the face of a late Fiorentina onslaught in midweek. The hosts lost this game last term with D'Aversa in charge, and could well be set for a repeat.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.80


Napoli to escape from recent rut

Udinese v Napoli
Sunday, 14:00
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A run of just one win in five has dented Napoli's top four hopes, with the midweek loss to Spezia - with just one goal scored from 3.55 xGF - the latest blow. Udinese are the only team with a better xGA record this season than the 0.97 per game of Rino Gattuso's men, but Infogol's model expects Luca Gotti's team to suffer from their underwhelming return at the right end.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.60

Crotone to fall to a third straight reverse

Verona v Crotone
Sunday, 14:00
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Verona have kept things tight of late, averaging just 1.14 xGA per game across their last six, and should have little trouble balancing that with an ability to find the net against struggling Crotone. The visitors have shipped nine in their last two games, albeit from just 4.38 xGA, but the goals for column (both real and expected) may prove the bigger issue for Giovani Stroppa's men.

Back the 2-0 @ 9.20

Home win to take Fiorentina towards mid-table

Fiorentina v Cagliari
Sunday, 17:00
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Fiorentina have struggled to turn solidity into victories at Artemio Franchi this season, drawing four of their eight home games, but a Cagliari side on a three-game losing streak represents an enticing prospect. Infogol's model backs the hosts to go one better than the goalless draw played out by these sides back in July, extending the gap between the teams from one point to four.

Back the 2-1 @ 8.80

Juve to continue upward momentum

Juventus v Sassuolo
Sunday, 19:45
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Victory at the San Siro could be just the tonic Andrea Pirlo needs in his first season as a Series A manager, but the Juve boss will need to be on his toes as Sassuolo come to Turin. The Bianconeri are 73% favourites with Infogol's model, but the visitors' last three away games - four points, with 1.42 xGF and 2.19 xGA on average - suggests we're in line for goals.

Back the 3-1 @ 10.50

Spezia to cancel out Sampdoria after midweek shocks

Spezia v Sampdoria
Monday, 19:45
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Both of these teams caused upsets in midweek, Spezia winning at Napoli and Sampdoria seeing off Inter, though both rode their luck in xG terms. Desperation to build on those results could see the two teams cancel each other out, with Infogol's model finding nothing to choose between them, and if the game does produce a winner it will come down to whichever team takes its chances... or rather, which team fails to do so.

Back the 1-1 @ 6.80

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