Serie A Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW23
Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides result and scoreline predictions from Serie A ahead of a massive Milan derby...
Fiorentina to puncture Spezia revival
Fiorentina v Spezia
Friday, 17:30
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Spezia produced one of the surprise displays of the season to earn a well-deserved victory over AC Milan last weekend, and Fiorentina stand between Vincenzo Italiano's men and a third straight win. The Viola are the more likely winners, according to Infogol's model, and three points on Friday evening would see them climb back above their opponents and closer to where the xG table says they should be.
Torino to edge battle at the foot of the table
Cagliari v Torino
Friday, 19:45
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Torino's run of draws continued last weekend, with Davide Nicola's side unable to break down his former employers Genoa, but Il Toro now have another chance to pick up a crucial win against fellow strugglers Cagliari. Just two points separate these two teams, with Cagliari earning more wins but fewer points, and Infogol gives the visitors the slightest of edges in a game which could easily go either way.
Lazio to stay in top four contention
Lazio v Sampdoria
Saturday, 14:00
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Defeat away to Inter last week sapped Lazio's momentum, but they're still just two points off a Champions League spot and will be keen to pick up a league win ahead of their return to Champions League action. Ciro Immobile scored a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last season, with the hosts scoring five, and will hope for a repeat result against a Samp side averaging 1.72 xGA per game away from home.
Genoa to prolong unbeaten run
Genoa v Verona
Saturday, 17:00
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After picking up 11 points from their last five games, conceding just once in the process, Genoa find themselves 10 clear of the relegation zone. A home win over Verona can move them one step closer to safety, and the visitors' return of 1 xGF per game - a tally which they have matched with actual goals - will make Davide Ballardini's side confident they can swat aside a team who they held to a goalless draw in October.
Sassuolo to claim second straight win
Sassuolo v Bologna
Saturday, 19:45
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A 2-1 win at Crotone last week saw Sassuolo produce one of their best performances in weeks, registering 23 shots and 2.53 xGF. They'll want to make sure that doesn't go to waste, and the visit of Bologna to Mapei Stadium - four months after a seven-goal thriller at Renato Dall'Ara - offers a solid opportunity despite the Rossoblù earning a second league win of the season in their last road game.
Parma's home woes to continue
Parma v Udinese
Sunday, 11:30
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You have to go back to October 25 to find Parma's last home goal in Serie A - Juraj Kucka's late equaliser against Spezia - and Roberto D'Aversa's side have lost their last five at home without scoring under a combination of D'Aversa and predecessor Fabio Liverani. Infogol anticipates more of the same on Sunday as they welcome an Udinese side with the third best xGA record in the entire division.
Milan to take the spoils in massive derby game
AC Milan v Inter Milan
Sunday, 14:00
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The Milan derby could hardly be bigger, with these two clubs separated by a single point at the top of the table. Milan and Inter have already met twice this season, with Stefano Pioli's pretenders winning in the league and Antonio Conte's league leaders coming out on top in the Coppa Italia, and Infogol's model anticipates a similarly tight clash after the exchange of 2-1 wins. The Rossoneri are narrowly favoured, despite losing their last league game, while victory for Inter would make them clear favourites for the Scudetto.
Atalanta to prepare for Champions League return with a win
Atalanta v Napoli
Sunday, 17:00
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As Gian Piero Gasperini's Atalanta prepare for their Champions League last 16 meeting with Real Madrid, they know their place at Europe's top table next season hangs in the balance. Defeat to Napoli would see them cast adrift in the top four race, but Infogol's model expects Gasperini's men to claim a vital victory over a Napoli side whose four away defeats have been enough to leave them chasing a top four spot rather than chasing the title.
Roma to improve on inconsistent away form
Benevento v Roma
Sunday, 19:45
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Roma have been rather unfortunate on the road, conceding almost twice as many goals as xG suggests they should have done, but a trip to Ciro Vigorito could help them improve on a return of 13 points from 10 road games. Benevento shipped five at the Olimpico in October, and Roma are favourites with Infogol's model to pick up a win which can keep them third in the table.
Juve to rebound after European setback
Juventus v Crotone
Monday, 19:45
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Juve can have no complaints about their Champions League loss in Porto, but their European campaign is far from over thanks to Federico Chiesa's away goal. In the meantime, Andrea Pirlo's side could do with strengthening their grasp on a top four place as the race for European football tightens up, and victory over a Crotone side leaking goals is a must after the Bianconeri dropped points in the reverse fixture at the start of the season.
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