La Liga Tips

La Liga Tips: Derby wins for Madrid and Sevilla in Gameweek 13

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as two frontrunners face big clashes with their neighbours

Athletic to return to home comforts

Athletic Bilbao v Cádiz
Friday, 20:00
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After back-to-back draws on the road, Athletic can return to winning ways with an inviting match at San Mamés. Cádiz's 1.79 xGA average is the worst in La Liga, and they haven't won since September, but the hosts will have painful memories of failing to break down nine-man opposition in the corresponding match at the start of last season.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 6.40

Espanyol to stay above Granada

Espanyol v Granada
Saturday, 13:00
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Robert Moreno's Granada picked up a statement win at Levante on Monday, though the match was closer than the 3-0 scoreline suggests. While Moreno's men have picked things up following a slow start, Espanyol have been tough to break down at home and Infogol's model gives them a slight edge on Saturday's game with limited goalmouth action anticipated at RCDE Stadium.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 8.80

Barça to end wait for away win

Celta Vigo v Barcelona
Saturday, 15:15
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After caretaker manager Sergi could only muster a draw in his first game in charge, a crucial midweek win in Kiev will leave him hopeful of more from Barcelona's trip to Vigo. While Celta have lost their last two at home, the defeats have come against strong Sevilla and Real Sociedad sides, so if the visitors do claim victory at Balaídos is may well not be as straightforward as anticipated.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? No
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 12.50 or 1-2 @ 9.80

Alavés to extend unbeaten run to four

Alavés v Levante
Saturday, 17:30
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Levante missed a golden opportunity to pull towards safety on Monday, and fans will surely be worried ahead of a trip to Alavés which could see the gap between the sides grow to seven points by full-time. These sides drew 2-2 at Mendizorrotza back in May, but Infogol's model backs the home side this term as they aim to keep their one-time manager Javier Pereira waiting for his first win at his new club.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 13.0

Rayo's away struggles to continue at Bernabéu

Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano
Saturday, 20:00
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Just four of Rayo's 20 points have come on the road, and Infogol's model doesn't expect them to add to that tally after making the short trip to face Real Madrid. Carlo Ancelotti's side remain unbeaten at the Bernabéu across four league games, and, while their opponents secured an impressive clean sheet at Celta Vigo last time out, this one looks like going the way of the hosts.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-0 @ 10.50

Villarreal to claim rare win at home to Getafe

Villarreal v Getafe
Sunday, 13:00
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Villarreal's last four games have failed to provide the uptick some had anticipated, and now they have the added distraction of manager Unai Emery being linked with a return to English football with Newcastle United. They're still expected to claim victory this weekend, though, with visitors Getafe coming off a maiden league win but still putting up worrying away numbers including 1.7 xGA per game on their travels.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 7.00

Atléti to grind out win in Valencia

Valencia v Atletico Madrid
Sunday, 15:15
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Atlético Madrid made a big statement at home to Real Betis last weekend, but their away form remains a step below their home success. Valencia tend to be tough to break down at the Mestalla, and Diego Simeone's visitors will be coming off a tough midweek trip to Anfield, but Infogol's model still anticipates an away win which would go some way to reminding challengers that the champions won't give up their hold on the title in a hurry.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 9.00

Mallorca to return to winning ways

Mallorca v Elche
Sunday, 17:30
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Mallorca have stabilised with three straight draws, but that will count for little if they're unable to get the better of Elche at Visit Mallorca Estadi. The visitors are averaging 0.82 xGF so far this season - and less than that on the road, where they have scored just three times in six games - and this limpness going forward ought to offer some encouragement to Luis García's hosts.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-0 @ 9.20

La Real to go into break still in top spot

Osasuna v Real Sociedad
Sunday, 17:30
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League leaders Real Sociedad face a second successive Basque derby after being held by Athletic Bilbao last week, and will hope Osasuna continue underperforming their numbers at El Sadar. The hosts can feel unfortunate to have only one home win this term, but the goalscoring form of Alexander Isak will worry Jagoba Arrasate's side, as will La Real's ability to defy the numbers en route to three away wins from six.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 12.50

Sevilla to claim spoils in derby

Real Betis v Sevilla
Sunday, 20:00
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The stakes are high for the Seville derby, with Sevilla second and Betis fifth, and much will come down to whether the visitors are able to keep up their strong defensive record. No team is averaging fewer xGA away from home than the 0.97 of Julen Lopetegui's side, and they'll hope Los Verdiblancos are unable to make an instant recovery following their 3-0 humbling in Madrid last weekend.

BTTS? No

Over/Under 2.5? Under  Correct Score Prediction - Back the 0-2 @ 13.00