Bundesliga Tips

Bundesliga Tips: Bayern to march on while Dortmund dip in Gameweek 11

Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Bundesliga result and scoreline predictions as two of last season's top three meet in Leipzig...

Gladbach to end Mainz's winning run

Mainz v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Friday, 19:30
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Mainz have won their last three in all competitions, attacking at will along the way, but they may end up hitting a roadblock when Borussia Mönchengladbach come to town. The visitors came from 2-1 down to win the corresponding game last season, and Adi Hütter's side will arrive in high spirits after back-to-back wins of their own, including a 5-0 demolition of Bayern Munich in the DFB-Pokal.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 10.50

Bayern to knock back high-flying Freiburg

Bayern Munich v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Freiburg can move level on points with Bayern if they win at the Allianz Arena, having gone 10 unbeaten in the league, but Infogol's model believes this is where their run will end. Christian Streich's team have slightly outperformed their numbers to sit third, while Bayern's 0.83 xGA average in the league makes for daunting reading, and the champions are coming off a fourth straight Champions League group stage victory.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 3-1 @ 11.50

Hoffenheim to pick up third straight win

Bochum v Hoffenheim
Saturday, 14:30
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Hoffenheim have been far less solid away than they have at home, but an average of 1.7 xGF on the road can serve them well at Vonovia Ruhrstadion. Opponents Bochum are out of immediate danger, but a 1.96 xGA average should worry them against the visitors, who are coming off successive cup and league wins with seven goals scored across the two games and just one conceded.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.80

Stuttgart to clamber away from danger

Stuttgart v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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Last week's 4-1 loss at Augsburg will be concerning to Stuttgart, but they have a chance to set things right immediately against a Bielefeld side with three straight losses in all competitions. The visitors have averaged 2.14 xGA per game across their last five in the league, earning a single point in the process, and Infogol expects them to remain in the bottom two with another reverse.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 8.60

Kohfeldt to continue strong start at Wolfsburg

Wolfsburg v Augsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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New manager Florian Kohfeldt has started strongly since taking the reins at the Volkswagen Arena, even if the Champions League win over Red Bull Salzburg benefited from the opponents' wastefulness in attack. These teams played out a goalless draw in the corresponding fixture last season, but Infogol expects the hosts to have the edge this time around and continue their new manager bounce.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 7.80

Leipzig to dent Dortmund's title push

RB Leipzig v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30
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Saturday's late game pits former Salzburg coach Jesse Marsch against one of the former stars of that team in Erling Haaland. Both of these sides have goals in them, though only Dortmund have turned that into results, meaning the home victory anticipated by Infogol's model would still leave Marsch's Leipzig some six points behind their opponents after the dust has settled.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Leverkusen to come out of their slump

Hertha Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 14:30
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Leverkusen haven't won a match since before the last international break, and will want to set that right in a trip to Hertha which looks winnable on paper. Infogol favours the visitors, who were beaten soundly at the Olympiastadion last season, with Hertha's 1.35 xGF average at home not entirely convincing and more or less in line with the 2020-21 numbers which kept them hovering around the drop zone.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 9.60

Köln to pull level with Union thanks to home win

Köln v Union Berlin
Sunday, 16:30
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After the wake-up call of conceding five to Bayern last weekend, Union will hope for a response against opponents who sit three points below them in the Bundesliga table. Köln have created a lot at home, though, averaging 2.24 xGF per game and remaining unbeaten at RheinEnergieStadion, and Infogol expects them to have the edge over visitors who have also been stronger at home than away this season.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 2-1 @ 9.20

Frankfurt to pick up precious win

Greuther Furth v Eintracht Frankfurt
Sunday, 18:30
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Defeat on Sunday would leave Eintracht Frankfurt in real trouble going into the international break, but if they're unable to see off winless Fürth then they'll only have themselves to blame. The hosts haven't quite been as bad as their single point suggests, but Oliver Glasner's side will want to bring some of their European form to the Bundesliga and give themselves something to build on as we enter a big few weeks.

BTTS? Yes

Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction - Back the 1-2 @ 8.60